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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Middlesbrough

U S S U U

3–4

Full-time

Leeds

U S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 43/41 matches

Win Ø 51%

42%

59%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

49%

51%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–3

1,13 xG 2,47

67% Possession 33%

13 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 4

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 9. · Leeds 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	43	29	4	10	+42	+34.7	91
2	Ipswich	43	26	11	6	+32	+24.7	89
3	Leeds	41	24	9	8	+40	+35.8	81
4	Southampton	41	23	9	9	+26	+32.2	78
5	West Brom	42	20	12	10	+26	+7.2	72
6	Norwich	42	21	9	12	+18	-0.4	72
7	Hull	43	18	12	13	+8	+6.2	66
8	Coventry	42	17	12	13	+14	+11.1	63
9	Middlesbrough	43	18	9	16	+5	+12.5	63
10	Preston	44	18	9	17	-5	-13.6	63
11	Cardiff	44	19	5	20	-11	-24.8	62
12	Bristol City	44	16	11	17	+4	-1.4	59
13	Sunderland	44	16	8	20	+1	+7.6	56
14	Swansea	44	15	11	18	-5	-5.6	56
15	Watford	44	12	17	15	+1	-1.7	53
16	Millwall	44	14	11	19	-12	-11.2	53
17	Stoke	44	13	11	20	-16	-3.3	50
18	QPR	44	13	11	20	-16	-4.2	50
19	Blackburn	44	13	10	21	-16	-9.4	49
20	Plymouth	44	12	12	20	-11	-21.0	48
21	Sheffield Weds	44	13	8	23	-29	-8.4	47
22	Birmingham	44	12	10	22	-16	-8.6	46
23	Huddersfield	44	9	17	18	-27	-13.0	44
24	Rotherham	44	4	12	28	-53	-45.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ipswich	22	15	6	1	+25	+23.3	51
2	Leeds	21	15	5	1	+29	+25.4	50
3	Leicester	21	16	1	4	+26	+18.0	49
4	Norwich	21	15	3	3	+22	+9.4	48
5	West Brom	21	14	4	3	+20	+11.9	46
6	Southampton	21	14	3	4	+25	+23.5	45
7	Preston	22	11	4	7	+2	-2.5	37
8	Coventry	20	9	8	3	+12	+7.9	35
9	Bristol City	22	10	4	8	+8	+2.0	34
10	Birmingham	22	9	6	7	+5	+1.2	33
11	Cardiff	22	10	3	9	-2	-11.4	33
12	Hull	22	8	8	6	+8	+7.1	32
13	Plymouth	22	9	5	8	+5	-10.1	32
14	Sunderland	22	10	2	10	+2	+6.6	32
15	Middlesbrough	21	9	4	8	+3	+11.6	31
16	Swansea	22	8	5	9	-1	+2.7	29
17	Millwall	22	8	5	9	-8	-3.0	29
18	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	-3	+2.7	28
19	Stoke	22	7	6	9	-7	+2.0	27
20	Huddersfield	22	6	7	9	-10	-4.2	25
21	Watford	22	5	9	8	+3	+7.1	24
22	Blackburn	22	6	6	10	-7	+0.8	24
23	QPR	22	6	6	10	-8	+1.3	24
24	Rotherham	22	4	8	10	-7	-13.1	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	22	13	3	6	+16	+16.7	42
2	Ipswich	21	11	5	5	+7	+1.4	38
3	Hull	21	10	4	7	+0	-1.0	34
4	Southampton	20	9	6	5	+1	+8.7	33
5	Middlesbrough	22	9	5	8	+2	+0.8	32
6	Leeds	20	9	4	7	+11	+10.4	31
7	Watford	22	7	8	7	-2	-8.8	29
8	Cardiff	22	9	2	11	-9	-13.4	29
9	Coventry	22	8	4	10	+2	+3.2	28
10	Swansea	22	7	6	9	-4	-8.3	27
11	West Brom	21	6	8	7	+6	-4.7	26
12	Preston	22	7	5	10	-7	-11.0	26
13	QPR	22	7	5	10	-8	-5.5	26
14	Bristol City	22	6	7	9	-4	-3.4	25
15	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-9	-10.2	25
16	Sunderland	22	6	6	10	-1	+1.0	24
17	Norwich	21	6	6	9	-4	-9.8	24
18	Millwall	22	6	6	10	-4	-8.2	24
19	Stoke	22	6	5	11	-9	-5.3	23
20	Huddersfield	22	3	10	9	-17	-8.8	19
21	Sheffield Weds	22	6	1	15	-26	-11.1	19
22	Plymouth	22	3	7	12	-16	-10.9	16
23	Birmingham	22	3	4	15	-21	-9.7	13
24	Rotherham	22	0	4	18	-46	-32.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.