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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Milan

S S T U T

1–2

Full-time

Inter

T U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 74%

66%

81%

Points per game

2,2

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 49%

56%

41%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

2,0

2,4

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,17 xG 2,05

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 5

19 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

2 Red cards 1

The table before the match Milan 2. · Inter 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	32	26	5	1	+60	+43.7	83
2	Milan	32	21	6	5	+26	+15.7	69
3	Juventus	33	18	10	5	+21	+23.8	64
4	Bologna	33	17	11	5	+22	+11.7	62
5	Roma	32	16	7	9	+19	+12.3	55
6	Atalanta	32	16	6	10	+22	+10.1	54
7	Lazio	33	16	4	13	+7	+4.5	52
8	Napoli	33	13	10	10	+9	+19.8	49
9	Fiorentina	32	13	8	11	+9	+1.2	47
10	Torino	33	11	13	9	+2	+4.8	46
11	Monza	33	11	10	12	-8	-14.0	43
12	Genoa	33	9	12	12	-5	-4.7	39
13	Lecce	33	8	11	14	-18	-9.1	35
14	Cagliari	33	7	11	15	-20	-10.2	32
15	Verona	33	7	10	16	-13	-13.0	31
16	Empoli	33	8	7	18	-22	-15.1	31
17	Udinese	32	4	16	12	-18	-10.1	28
18	Frosinone	33	6	10	17	-23	-15.3	28
19	Sassuolo	33	6	8	19	-26	-17.5	26
20	Salernitana	33	2	9	22	-44	-38.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	3	1	+31	+26.4	42
2	Bologna	17	12	3	2	+21	+9.1	39
3	Roma	17	11	3	3	+18	+11.6	36
4	Milan	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.3	35
5	Juventus	16	10	5	1	+13	+16.6	35
6	Atalanta	15	10	2	3	+21	+12.1	32
7	Torino	17	7	8	2	+7	+7.8	29
8	Fiorentina	16	8	4	4	+10	+6.1	28
9	Lazio	16	8	3	5	+6	+8.1	27
10	Cagliari	17	6	6	5	-3	+5.8	24
11	Napoli	16	6	5	5	-1	+10.9	23
12	Monza	17	6	5	6	-2	-5.6	23
13	Lecce	16	6	5	5	-6	+0.6	23
14	Frosinone	16	6	4	6	-1	-3.5	22
15	Genoa	16	5	6	5	-1	-1.4	21
16	Verona	16	5	5	6	-3	-6.0	20
17	Sassuolo	17	4	5	8	-10	-8.8	17
18	Empoli	17	4	4	9	-9	-5.5	16
19	Udinese	16	1	9	6	-7	-1.2	12
20	Salernitana	17	1	5	11	-19	-14.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	13	2	0	+29	+17.3	41
2	Milan	17	10	4	3	+8	+7.5	34
3	Juventus	17	8	5	4	+8	+7.2	29
4	Napoli	17	7	5	5	+10	+8.9	26
5	Lazio	17	8	1	8	+1	-3.7	25
6	Bologna	16	5	8	3	+1	+2.6	23
7	Atalanta	17	6	4	7	+1	-2.0	22
8	Monza	16	5	5	6	-6	-8.4	20
9	Roma	15	5	4	6	+1	+0.7	19
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.8	19
11	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-4	-3.3	18
12	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	-3.0	17
13	Udinese	16	3	7	6	-11	-8.9	16
14	Empoli	16	4	3	9	-13	-9.6	15
15	Lecce	17	2	6	9	-12	-9.7	12
16	Verona	17	2	5	10	-10	-7.0	11
17	Sassuolo	16	2	3	11	-16	-8.6	9
18	Cagliari	16	1	5	10	-17	-15.9	8
19	Salernitana	16	1	4	11	-25	-24.2	7
20	Frosinone	17	0	6	11	-22	-11.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.