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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Aston Villa

S T S T T

2–2

Full-time

Man United

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

37%

47%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

63%

47%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 14. · Man United 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	22	18	2	2	+41	56
2	Chelsea	22	12	7	3	+28	43
3	Liverpool	20	12	6	2	+34	42
4	West Ham	21	11	4	6	+12	37
5	Arsenal	20	11	2	7	+8	35
6	Tottenham	18	10	3	5	+3	33
7	Man United	19	9	4	6	+3	31
8	Wolves	20	9	4	7	+2	31
9	Brighton	20	6	10	4	+0	28
10	Leicester	18	7	4	7	-2	25
11	Crystal Palace	21	5	9	7	-1	24
12	Southampton	21	5	9	7	-8	24
13	Brentford	20	6	5	9	-6	23
14	Aston Villa	19	7	1	11	-5	22
15	Everton	19	5	4	10	-10	19
16	Leeds	19	4	7	8	-16	19
17	Watford	19	4	2	13	-14	14
18	Norwich	21	3	4	14	-35	13
19	Newcastle	20	1	9	10	-23	12
20	Burnley	17	1	8	8	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+26	28
2	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	+10	22
3	Tottenham	10	7	1	2	+6	22
4	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Chelsea	11	5	5	1	+15	20
6	Crystal Palace	11	4	5	2	+8	17
7	West Ham	10	5	2	3	+5	17
8	Leicester	9	5	1	3	+4	16
9	Man United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
10	Southampton	10	3	6	1	+4	15
11	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+0	14
12	Aston Villa	9	4	1	4	+1	13
13	Brentford	10	4	1	5	+0	13
14	Everton	9	4	1	4	-1	13
15	Brighton	10	3	4	3	-1	13
16	Leeds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
17	Newcastle	11	1	6	4	-9	9
18	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-13	8
19	Burnley	7	1	4	2	+0	7
20	Watford	10	2	1	7	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	9	1	1	+15	28
2	Chelsea	11	7	2	2	+13	23
3	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+18	21
4	West Ham	11	6	2	3	+7	20
5	Wolves	10	5	2	3	+2	17
6	Man United	9	4	3	2	+1	15
7	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	15
8	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
9	Tottenham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
10	Brentford	10	2	4	4	-6	10
11	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
12	Aston Villa	10	3	0	7	-6	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-12	9
14	Watford	9	2	1	6	-3	7
15	Crystal Palace	10	1	4	5	-9	7
16	Everton	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	Leeds	9	1	3	5	-13	6
18	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-22	5
19	Burnley	10	0	4	6	-11	4
20	Newcastle	9	0	3	6	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.