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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Newcastle

S S U S S

4–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

42%

25%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

58%

42%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 0

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 4. · Aston Villa 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+26	29
2	Arsenal	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Tottenham	12	7	2	3	+9	23
4	Newcastle	12	5	6	1	+10	21
5	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Man United	11	6	2	3	+0	20
7	Fulham	12	5	3	4	+0	18
8	Liverpool	11	4	4	3	+9	16
9	Brighton	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-1	14
11	Brentford	12	3	5	4	-3	14
12	Everton	12	3	4	5	-1	13
13	Crystal Palace	11	3	4	4	-4	13
14	Bournemouth	12	3	4	5	-15	13
15	Aston Villa	12	3	3	6	-5	12
16	Southampton	12	3	3	6	-8	12
17	Leicester	13	3	2	8	-4	11
18	Leeds	11	2	3	6	-5	9
19	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-13	9
20	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+21	18
2	Tottenham	6	5	0	1	+10	15
3	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+7	15
4	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+12	14
5	Newcastle	6	3	3	0	+7	12
6	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Chelsea	5	3	2	0	+5	11
8	Fulham	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Man United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
10	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
11	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
12	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+1	10
13	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
14	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
15	Leeds	6	2	2	2	+2	8
16	Everton	6	2	2	2	+2	8
17	Bournemouth	6	2	2	2	-1	8
18	Wolves	6	2	2	2	-5	8
19	Nott'm Forest	6	2	1	3	-2	7
20	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
3	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+0	10
4	Man United	6	3	1	2	-4	10
5	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+3	9
6	Tottenham	6	2	2	2	-1	8
7	Brighton	6	2	1	3	-2	7
8	Fulham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Southampton	6	2	0	4	-7	6
10	Everton	6	1	2	3	-3	5
11	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-14	5
12	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Crystal Palace	5	0	3	2	-5	3
14	Leicester	6	1	0	5	-7	3
15	Brentford	6	0	3	3	-9	3
16	Liverpool	5	0	2	3	-3	2
17	Aston Villa	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Nott'm Forest	6	0	2	4	-13	2
19	Leeds	5	0	1	4	-7	1
20	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.