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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Fulham

T S T T U

3–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fulham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,7

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 25%

30%

20%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

90%

30%

Both score Ø 70%

90%

50%

Average goals

3,6

2,0

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Fulham 12. · Aston Villa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+14	27
2	Man City	10	7	2	1	+23	23
3	Tottenham	11	7	2	2	+10	23
4	Chelsea	10	6	2	2	+5	20
5	Man United	10	6	1	3	+0	19
6	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	18
7	Liverpool	10	4	4	2	+10	16
8	Brighton	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	Brentford	11	3	5	3	+1	14
10	Crystal Palace	10	3	4	3	-1	13
11	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-13	13
12	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
14	Southampton	11	3	2	6	-8	11
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-4	10
16	Leeds	9	2	3	4	-2	9
17	Aston Villa	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-9	9
19	Nott'm Forest	11	1	3	7	-16	6
20	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+19	15
2	Tottenham	5	5	0	0	+11	15
3	Arsenal	5	5	0	0	+7	15
4	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+12	14
5	Newcastle	6	3	3	0	+7	12
6	Brentford	6	3	2	1	+6	11
7	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+5	10
8	Man United	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Crystal Palace	6	3	1	2	+1	10
10	Brighton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Fulham	5	2	2	1	-1	8
13	Bournemouth	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Wolves	5	2	2	1	-1	8
15	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-1	7
17	Leicester	5	1	2	2	+2	5
18	Southampton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Everton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
20	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+7	12
2	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+0	10
3	Man United	5	3	0	2	-4	9
4	Man City	5	2	2	1	+4	8
5	Tottenham	6	2	2	2	-1	8
6	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Newcastle	5	1	3	1	+2	6
8	Southampton	6	2	0	4	-7	6
9	Everton	6	1	2	3	-3	5
10	Bournemouth	5	1	2	2	-12	5
11	Fulham	5	1	1	3	-3	4
12	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Crystal Palace	4	0	3	1	-2	3
14	Brentford	5	0	3	2	-5	3
15	Liverpool	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Aston Villa	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Nott'm Forest	6	0	2	4	-13	2
18	Leeds	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Wolves	6	0	1	5	-8	1
20	Leicester	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.