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League Cup

Referee: K Stroud

Birmingham

S U U S S

0–2

Full-time

Fulham

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Fulham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

57% Possession 43%

16 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Preston	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Leyton Orient	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Coventry	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Barnsley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
15	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
16	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
17	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
18	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
19	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+2	3
20	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Plymouth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
27	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
30	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
31	Tranmere	2	1	0	1	-1	3
32	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
33	Crawley Town	2	1	0	1	-2	3
34	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
35	Harrogate Town	2	1	0	1	-4	3
36	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
45	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
46	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
74	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Fleetwood Town	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Walsall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Barrow	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Leicester	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Everton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Barnsley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Shrewsbury	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Grimsby	2	0	1	1	-4	1
29	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
43	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
44	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0
45	Harrogate Town	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Sheffield Weds	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Blackpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Preston	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Bolton	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Doncaster	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Derby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
37	Plymouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
42	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
43	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
44	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
45	Crawley Town	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	Tranmere	1	0	0	1	-4	0
47	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.