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League Cup

Referee: A Chilowicz

Brighton

U T T S S

4–0

Full-time

Crawley Town

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Crawley Town

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

4,2

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

44% Possession 56%

17 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Watford	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Barrow	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Shrewsbury	1	0	1	0	+0	1
31	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Grimsby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
55	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
70	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Leyton Orient	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Huddersfield	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Plymouth	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Tranmere	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Crawley Town	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Preston	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Barrow	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Fleetwood Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Shrewsbury	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Colchester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Bolton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Walsall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Grimsby	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Hull	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Lincoln	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Bromley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Cambridge United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Charlton	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Portsmouth	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Northampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Salford City	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Carlisle	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Leeds	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Burton Albion	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Stockport County	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stoke	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Wycombe	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Doncaster	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Harrogate Town	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	AFC Wimbledon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Notts County	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Reading	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Barnsley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Mansfield Town	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Exeter City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Bradford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Stevenage	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Port Vale	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Chesterfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Crewe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	West Brom	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Wrexham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Swindon Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Gillingham	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Bristol Rovers	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Peterborough	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Newport County	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Morecambe	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Cheltenham	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Accrington ST	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Milton Keynes Dons	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.