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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Arsenal

S U S S S

5–1

Full-time

Man City

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

5,3

Scored

1,8

4,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 55%

57%

52%

Points per game

2,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

43%

74%

Both score Ø 64%

57%

70%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,9

2,0

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,00 xG 0,81

46% Possession 54%

12 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 2. · Man City 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	23	17	5	1	+35	+33.9	56
2	Arsenal	23	13	8	2	+23	+18.1	47
3	Nott'm Forest	24	14	5	5	+13	+5.3	47
4	Man City	23	12	5	6	+17	+10.5	41
5	Newcastle	24	12	5	7	+13	+11.7	41
6	Chelsea	23	11	7	5	+15	+14.2	40
7	Bournemouth	24	11	7	6	+13	+14.7	40
8	Aston Villa	24	10	7	7	-3	+4.8	37
9	Fulham	24	9	9	6	+4	+6.3	36
10	Brighton	24	8	10	6	-3	-3.8	34
11	Brentford	24	9	4	11	+0	-1.2	31
12	Crystal Palace	24	7	9	8	-2	+0.6	30
13	Man United	24	8	5	11	-6	-3.0	29
14	Tottenham	24	8	3	13	+11	-0.9	27
15	West Ham	23	7	6	10	-16	-8.7	27
16	Everton	23	6	8	9	-5	-5.4	26
17	Wolves	24	5	4	15	-18	-13.8	19
18	Leicester	24	4	5	15	-28	-24.3	17
19	Ipswich	24	3	7	14	-27	-26.4	16
20	Southampton	24	2	3	19	-36	-32.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.5	26
2	Arsenal	11	7	4	0	+13	+14.2	25
3	Nott'm Forest	12	7	3	2	+12	+6.3	24
4	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+10.2	23
5	Aston Villa	12	6	5	1	+6	+11.5	23
6	Brentford	13	7	2	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Bournemouth	12	6	3	3	+8	+9.4	21
8	Newcastle	12	6	2	4	+6	+5.2	20
9	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+6	+10.5	19
10	Fulham	12	4	5	3	+0	+1.4	17
11	Everton	12	4	4	4	+3	-0.6	16
12	Man United	13	5	1	7	-5	+0.3	16
13	Brighton	11	3	6	2	+0	+2.1	15
14	Tottenham	12	4	2	6	+4	+0.2	14
15	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
16	Crystal Palace	12	2	5	5	-8	+0.4	11
17	Wolves	12	3	1	8	-8	-4.9	10
18	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
19	Ipswich	13	1	4	8	-17	-10.3	7
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-22	-19.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	12	9	3	0	+20	+19.4	30
2	Nott'm Forest	12	7	2	3	+1	-0.9	23
3	Arsenal	12	6	4	2	+10	+3.9	22
4	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+9	+3.7	21
5	Newcastle	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.5	21
6	Crystal Palace	12	5	4	3	+6	+0.2	19
7	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
8	Fulham	12	5	4	3	+4	+4.9	19
9	Brighton	13	5	4	4	-3	-5.9	19
10	Man City	12	5	3	4	+8	+0.3	18
11	Aston Villa	12	4	2	6	-9	-6.7	14
12	Tottenham	12	4	1	7	+7	-1.1	13
13	Man United	11	3	4	4	-1	-3.2	13
14	West Ham	11	3	4	4	-6	-2.0	13
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.7	10
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Ipswich	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.0	9
18	Brentford	11	2	2	7	-4	-5.2	8
19	Leicester	12	2	2	8	-18	-14.6	8
20	Southampton	13	1	2	10	-14	-13.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.