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Championship

Referee: A Backhouse

Millwall

T U S S U

2–0

Full-time

Oxford

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Oxford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 43/45 matches

Win Ø 38%

51%

24%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

47%

Both score Ø 51%

49%

53%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,14 xG 1,09

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

14 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 3. · Oxford 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	45	27	11	7	+48	+35.8	92
2	Ipswich	45	22	15	8	+30	+30.3	81
3	Millwall	43	22	11	10	+13	+7.7	77
4	Southampton	43	21	13	9	+28	+20.1	76
5	Middlesbrough	42	20	12	10	+18	+26.6	72
6	Wrexham	45	19	13	13	+4	-6.1	70
7	Derby	45	20	9	16	+9	+0.6	69
8	Hull	42	19	10	13	+6	-22.8	67
9	Norwich	45	19	8	18	+8	-2.4	65
10	Birmingham	45	17	12	16	+1	+13.4	63
11	Swansea	45	17	10	18	-4	-5.8	61
12	Preston	45	15	15	15	-5	-15.8	60
13	Bristol City	45	16	11	18	-2	-8.7	59
14	QPR	45	16	10	19	-9	-1.1	58
15	Sheffield United	45	17	6	22	-1	+14.1	57
16	Watford	45	14	15	16	-8	+1.7	57
17	Stoke	45	15	10	20	-3	-11.7	55
18	Portsmouth	45	14	12	19	-15	-3.2	54
19	West Brom	45	13	14	18	-9	+10.6	53
20	Charlton	45	13	14	18	-12	-16.0	53
21	Blackburn	45	13	13	19	-13	+1.2	52
22	Leicester	45	11	16	18	-11	-11.8	49
23	Oxford	45	11	14	20	-12	-6.0	47
24	Sheffield Weds	45	1	12	32	-61	-50.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	23	17	4	2	+32	+25.6	55
2	Ipswich	22	13	8	1	+23	+24.8	47
3	Birmingham	23	12	8	3	+17	+20.1	44
4	Southampton	22	12	7	3	+19	+14.3	43
5	Middlesbrough	22	11	6	5	+12	+15.4	39
6	Millwall	21	12	3	6	+8	+8.0	39
7	Watford	22	10	7	5	+7	+6.0	37
8	Swansea	22	10	6	6	+5	-1.5	36
9	Derby	22	10	6	6	+5	+4.5	36
10	Wrexham	22	10	6	6	+4	+7.3	36
11	Hull	20	10	5	5	+5	-4.5	35
12	West Brom	23	8	10	5	+3	+13.3	34
13	Stoke	23	9	6	8	+6	+2.9	33
14	QPR	23	10	3	10	+3	+8.2	33
15	Sheffield United	23	9	4	10	+5	+15.0	31
16	Preston	22	8	7	7	+0	-3.4	31
17	Charlton	23	9	4	10	-3	-2.1	31
18	Norwich	23	9	3	11	-1	+0.7	30
19	Portsmouth	22	8	5	9	+2	+7.4	29
20	Oxford	23	7	8	8	-3	+3.6	29
21	Bristol City	22	8	4	10	+0	-4.4	28
22	Leicester	23	7	7	9	-3	-0.1	28
23	Blackburn	22	4	9	9	-7	+5.2	21
24	Sheffield Weds	22	0	7	15	-31	-21.9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Millwall	22	10	8	4	+5	-0.3	38
2	Coventry	22	10	7	5	+16	+10.3	37
3	Norwich	22	10	5	7	+9	-3.1	35
4	Ipswich	23	9	7	7	+7	+5.5	34
5	Wrexham	23	9	7	7	+0	-13.4	34
6	Southampton	21	9	6	6	+9	+5.8	33
7	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+6	+11.2	33
8	Derby	23	10	3	10	+4	-3.8	33
9	Hull	22	9	5	8	+1	-18.2	32
10	Bristol City	23	8	7	8	-2	-4.3	31
11	Blackburn	23	9	4	10	-6	-4.0	31
12	Preston	23	7	8	8	-5	-12.4	29
13	Sheffield United	22	8	2	12	-6	-0.9	26
14	Swansea	23	7	4	12	-9	-4.3	25
15	QPR	22	6	7	9	-12	-9.4	25
16	Portsmouth	23	6	7	10	-17	-10.6	25
17	Charlton	22	4	10	8	-9	-13.9	22
18	Stoke	22	6	4	12	-9	-14.7	22
19	Leicester	22	4	9	9	-8	-11.7	21
20	Watford	23	4	8	11	-15	-4.3	20
21	West Brom	22	5	4	13	-12	-2.7	19
22	Birmingham	22	5	4	13	-16	-6.7	19
23	Oxford	22	4	6	12	-9	-9.7	18
24	Sheffield Weds	23	1	5	17	-30	-28.9	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.