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Eredivisie

Referee: I Oostrom

Groningen

U S S U T

2–3

Full-time

Excelsior

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Groningen Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 33%

40%

26%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

61%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

61%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,87 xG 2,38

56% Possession 44%

12 Shots 18

5 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Groningen 9. · Excelsior 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	31	25	2	4	+49	+31.0	77
2	Feyenoord	31	17	7	7	+23	+25.4	58
3	Nijmegen	31	15	10	6	+24	+10.3	55
4	Twente	31	14	12	5	+19	+26.2	54
5	Ajax	30	13	12	5	+20	+8.9	51
6	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	7	10	+7	+19.3	49
7	Utrecht	31	13	7	11	+10	+2.4	46
8	Heerenveen	30	13	7	10	+4	+10.2	46
9	Groningen	30	12	6	12	+5	+12.2	42
10	Sparta Rotterdam	31	12	6	13	-17	-5.6	42
11	Go Ahead Eagles	31	8	13	10	+5	-17.2	37
12	For Sittard	31	10	6	15	-12	-15.5	36
13	Zwolle	31	8	10	13	-25	-17.6	34
14	Excelsior	31	8	7	16	-15	-15.2	31
15	Volendam	31	8	7	16	-17	-24.1	31
16	Telstar	31	7	9	15	-10	-11.4	30
17	NAC Breda	32	5	10	17	-25	-12.9	25
18	Heracles	31	5	4	22	-45	-26.3	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	12	2	2	+28	+18.5	38
2	Feyenoord	16	11	2	3	+16	+18.7	35
3	Utrecht	15	9	2	4	+16	+9.8	29
4	AZ Alkmaar	15	8	5	2	+13	+14.4	29
5	Heerenveen	16	8	5	3	+9	+13.1	29
6	Twente	16	8	5	3	+9	+15.2	29
7	Nijmegen	15	8	4	3	+15	+10.0	28
8	Ajax	14	8	3	3	+14	+13.4	27
9	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	7	3	+13	+2.8	25
10	Zwolle	15	7	4	4	+1	+0.7	25
11	Volendam	15	6	5	4	+4	-3.3	23
12	Groningen	15	6	4	5	+9	+7.5	22
13	For Sittard	15	6	4	5	-1	-0.0	22
14	Sparta Rotterdam	15	6	4	5	-5	+0.4	22
15	Telstar	16	4	5	7	+0	-0.8	17
16	Excelsior	16	5	2	9	-2	-2.4	17
17	NAC Breda	16	4	5	7	-5	+1.6	17
18	Heracles	16	4	3	9	-12	-6.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	13	0	2	+21	+12.5	39
2	Nijmegen	16	7	6	3	+9	+0.3	27
3	Twente	15	6	7	2	+10	+11.0	25
4	Ajax	16	5	9	2	+6	-4.5	24
5	Feyenoord	15	6	5	4	+7	+6.7	23
6	Groningen	15	6	2	7	-4	+4.6	20
7	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	2	8	-6	+4.9	20
8	Sparta Rotterdam	16	6	2	8	-12	-6.0	20
9	Heerenveen	14	5	2	7	-5	-3.0	17
10	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-6	-7.4	17
11	For Sittard	16	4	2	10	-11	-15.5	14
12	Excelsior	15	3	5	7	-13	-12.8	14
13	Telstar	15	3	4	8	-10	-10.6	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	15	2	6	7	-8	-20.0	12
15	Zwolle	16	1	6	9	-26	-18.3	9
16	NAC Breda	16	1	5	10	-20	-14.6	8
17	Volendam	16	2	2	12	-21	-20.7	8
18	Heracles	15	1	1	13	-33	-19.9	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.