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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Nantes

U U U T T

3–0

Full-time

Marseille

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 33%

13%

52%

Points per game

0,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

45%

61%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,9

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,42 xG 1,36

42% Possession 58%

17 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 4

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nantes 17. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	22	3	5	+43	+40.9	69
2	Lens	30	20	3	7	+28	+22.6	63
3	Lille	31	17	6	8	+16	+16.0	57
4	Lyon	31	17	6	8	+16	+5.2	57
5	Rennes	31	16	8	7	+12	+3.3	56
6	Marseille	31	16	5	10	+18	+15.4	53
7	Monaco	31	15	6	10	+7	+8.1	51
8	Strasbourg	30	13	7	10	+10	+8.4	46
9	Lorient	31	10	11	10	-5	-0.9	41
10	Toulouse	31	10	8	13	-1	-0.7	38
11	Brest	30	10	8	12	-6	-5.5	38
12	Paris FC	31	9	11	11	-7	-12.9	38
13	Angers	31	9	7	15	-17	-21.4	34
14	Le Havre	31	6	13	12	-13	-11.4	31
15	Nice	31	7	9	15	-22	-16.7	30
16	Auxerre	31	5	10	16	-15	-10.9	25
17	Nantes	31	4	8	19	-25	-14.2	20
18	Metz	31	3	7	21	-39	-25.3	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	15	13	0	2	+23	+20.3	39
2	Paris SG	15	12	1	2	+28	+22.1	37
3	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+19	+13.2	34
4	Lyon	15	11	1	3	+14	+8.9	34
5	Monaco	16	10	2	4	+11	+9.8	32
6	Rennes	16	9	4	3	+12	+6.4	31
7	Lorient	16	8	6	2	+8	+5.6	30
8	Lille	15	8	4	3	+9	+11.9	28
9	Strasbourg	15	8	3	4	+11	+11.9	27
10	Brest	15	7	4	4	+6	+4.7	25
11	Le Havre	16	5	8	3	+3	+1.2	23
12	Angers	16	6	4	6	-2	-7.3	22
13	Toulouse	16	5	6	5	+0	+6.2	21
14	Paris FC	15	5	4	6	-4	-4.3	19
15	Nice	15	4	6	5	-8	-4.0	18
16	Auxerre	15	4	4	7	-2	+0.5	16
17	Metz	15	2	4	9	-12	-2.0	10
18	Nantes	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	10	2	3	+15	+18.8	32
2	Lille	16	9	2	5	+7	+4.1	29
3	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+0	-3.1	25
4	Lens	15	7	3	5	+5	+2.3	24
5	Lyon	16	6	5	5	+2	-3.6	23
6	Strasbourg	15	5	4	6	-1	-3.5	19
7	Marseille	15	6	1	8	-1	+2.1	19
8	Paris FC	16	4	7	5	-3	-8.6	19
9	Monaco	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.7	19
10	Toulouse	15	5	2	8	-1	-6.9	17
11	Brest	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.2	13
12	Nice	16	3	3	10	-14	-12.7	12
13	Angers	15	3	3	9	-15	-14.1	12
14	Nantes	16	2	5	9	-13	-7.4	11
15	Lorient	15	2	5	8	-13	-6.5	11
16	Auxerre	16	1	6	9	-13	-11.4	9
17	Le Havre	15	1	5	9	-16	-12.7	8
18	Metz	16	1	3	12	-27	-23.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.