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DFB-Pokal

Referee: D Aytekin

Erzgebirge Aue

S U T T S

0–3

Full-time

Mainz

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

5 Shots 26

0 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 3

21 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+8	3
3	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Stuttgarter Kickers	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	VfB Lubeck	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Regensburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
33	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
36	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
37	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
38	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
39	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
40	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
41	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
42	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
43	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
44	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
45	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
46	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Stuttgarter Kickers	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	VfB Lubeck	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Regensburg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Straelen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
6	Kaiserslautern	1	0	0	1	-1	0
7	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Bayreuth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
10	Kaan-Marienborn	1	0	0	1	-2	0
11	Illertissen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	SV Rodinghausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Kickers Offenbach	1	0	0	1	-3	0
14	TSV 1860 Munich	1	0	0	1	-3	0
15	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
16	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	1	0	0	1	-4	0
18	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-4	0
19	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-5	0
20	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-6	0
21	Oberachern	1	0	0	1	-8	0
22	Neustrelitz	1	0	0	1	-8	0
23	Einheit Wernigerode	1	0	0	1	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+10	3
2	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+8	3
3	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+8	3
4	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Sandhausen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	Hannover	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Nurnberg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.