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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Mainz

U T T U T

3–1

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,2

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 56%

35%

77%

Points per game

1,3

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

55%

81%

Both score Ø 59%

52%

65%

Average goals

2,7

3,9

Scored

1,4

3,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

31% Possession 69%

24 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 10. · Bayern Munich 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	31	24	3	4	+62	75
2	Dortmund	31	20	3	8	+31	63
3	Leverkusen	31	16	7	8	+28	55
4	RB Leipzig	31	16	6	9	+33	54
5	Freiburg	31	14	10	7	+15	52
6	Union Berlin	32	14	9	9	+2	51
7	FC Koln	31	13	10	8	+2	49
8	Hoffenheim	31	13	7	11	+5	46
9	Ein Frankfurt	31	10	10	11	-2	40
10	Mainz	31	11	6	14	+2	39
11	M'gladbach	31	10	8	13	-13	38
12	Wolfsburg	31	11	4	16	-12	37
13	Bochum	31	10	6	15	-15	36
14	Augsburg	31	9	8	14	-11	35
15	Hertha	31	9	5	17	-32	32
16	Stuttgart	31	6	10	15	-19	28
17	Bielefeld	31	5	11	15	-25	26
18	Greuther Furth	32	3	9	20	-51	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+33	40
2	Dortmund	15	12	0	3	+24	36
3	RB Leipzig	16	10	2	4	+22	32
4	Union Berlin	16	9	5	2	+7	32
5	Mainz	15	9	4	2	+20	31
6	FC Koln	16	9	4	3	+7	31
7	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	+10	29
8	Hoffenheim	15	8	4	3	+13	28
9	Leverkusen	15	8	2	5	+13	26
10	Bochum	16	7	4	5	+3	25
11	Wolfsburg	16	7	2	7	+4	23
12	Augsburg	15	6	4	5	+1	22
13	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+0	22
14	Hertha	16	6	3	7	-8	21
15	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	6	6	-2	18
16	Stuttgart	15	5	3	7	-5	18
17	Bielefeld	15	2	8	5	-8	14
18	Greuther Furth	16	3	5	8	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	2	2	+29	35
2	Leverkusen	16	8	5	3	+15	29
3	Dortmund	16	8	3	5	+7	27
4	Freiburg	15	6	5	4	+5	23
5	RB Leipzig	15	6	4	5	+11	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+0	22
7	Union Berlin	16	5	4	7	-5	19
8	FC Koln	15	4	6	5	-5	18
9	Hoffenheim	16	5	3	8	-8	18
10	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-13	16
11	Wolfsburg	15	4	2	9	-16	14
12	Augsburg	16	3	4	9	-12	13
13	Bielefeld	16	3	3	10	-17	12
14	Bochum	15	3	2	10	-18	11
15	Hertha	15	3	2	10	-24	11
16	Stuttgart	16	1	7	8	-14	10
17	Mainz	16	2	2	12	-18	8
18	Greuther Furth	16	0	4	12	-35	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.