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DFB-Pokal
Referee: F Willenborg
0–1
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rot-Weiß Essen Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
6,0
4,5
Scored
2,0
3,3
Conceded
4,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+2,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

34% Possession 66%
12 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 6
2 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Wolfsburg 1 1 0 0 +9 3
2 Kaiserslautern 1 1 0 0 +7 3
3 Ein Frankfurt 1 1 0 0 +5 3
4 Union Berlin 1 1 0 0 +5 3
5 Heidenheim 1 1 0 0 +5 3
6 Karlsruhe 1 1 0 0 +5 3
7 Hoffenheim 1 1 0 0 +4 3
8 Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 +4 3
9 RB Leipzig 1 1 0 0 +2 3
10 Fortuna Dusseldorf 1 1 0 0 +2 3
11 Magdeburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
12 Paderborn 1 1 0 0 +2 3
13 Bochum 1 1 0 0 +2 3
14 Greuther Furth 1 1 0 0 +2 3
15 Augsburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
16 Holstein Kiel 1 1 0 0 +2 3
17 Freiburg 1 1 0 0 +2 3
18 M'gladbach 1 1 0 0 +1 3
19 FC Koln 1 1 0 0 +1 3
20 Darmstadt 1 1 0 0 +1 3
21 Hamburg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
22 Bielefeld 1 1 0 0 +1 3
23 Mainz 1 1 0 0 +1 3
24 Elversberg 1 1 0 0 +1 3
25 Cottbus 1 1 0 0 +1 3
26 Schalke 04 1 1 0 0 +1 3
27 Illertissen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
28 Nurnberg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
29 Preußen Münster 1 0 1 0 +0 1
30 Hertha 1 0 1 0 +0 1
31 Eintracht Norderstedt 1 0 1 0 +0 1
32 St Pauli 1 0 1 0 +0 1
33 Atlas Delmenhorst 1 0 0 1 -1 0
34 Regensburg 1 0 0 1 -1 0
35 VfB Lubeck 1 0 0 1 -1 0
36 Pirmasens 1 0 0 1 -1 0
37 Werder Bremen 1 0 0 1 -1 0
38 Dresden 1 0 0 1 -1 0
39 Ulm 1 0 0 1 -1 0
40 Hannover 1 0 0 1 -1 0
41 Lokomotive Leipzig 1 0 0 1 -1 0
42 Sandhausen 1 0 0 1 -2 0
43 FC Schweinfurt 05 1 0 0 1 -2 0
44 FC Saarbrücken 1 0 0 1 -2 0
45 FC Viktoria Koln 1 0 0 1 -2 0
46 BFC Dynamo 1 0 0 1 -2 0
47 BW Lohne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
48 Hallescher FC 1 0 0 1 -2 0
49 FC 08 Homburg 1 0 0 1 -2 0
50 Sportfreunde Lotte 1 0 0 1 -2 0
51 Hansa Rostock 1 0 0 1 -4 0
52 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1 0 0 1 -4 0
53 FV Engers 07 1 0 0 1 -5 0
54 FC Gutersloh 1 0 0 1 -5 0
55 Bahlinger SC 1 0 0 1 -5 0
56 ZFC Meuselwitz 1 0 0 1 -5 0
57 RSV Eintracht 1 0 0 1 -7 0
58 Hemelingen 1 0 0 1 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rot-Weiß Essen Dortmund
Half-time 0–0
64′
🔁 J. Bellingham
↦ P. Gross
64′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ M. Beier
N. Kaiser 🔁
↦ L. Brumme
75′
76′
🟨 Daniel Svensson
M. Obuz 🔁
↦ A. Arslan
76′
79′
S. Guirassy 0–1
R. Bensebaini
D. Martinovic 🔁
↦ R. Safi
83′
T. Musel 🔁
↦ J. Rios Alonso
84′
K. Owusu 🔁
↦ K. Gjasula
87′
94′
🔁 S. Ozcan
↦ M. Sabitzer
Kelsey Owusu 🟨
95′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Rot-Weiß Essen

3-4-2-1
1 J. Golz G
23 J. Rios Alonso D
4 M. Schultz D
33 T. Kraulich D
37 J. Hofmann M
28 T. Moustier M
8 K. Gjasula M
14 L. Brumme M
7 R. Safi
24 K. Mizuta F
6 A. Arslan F
Bench (9)
35 F. Wienand
10 M. Obuz
11 D. Martinovic
18 N. Kaiser
19 F. Bouebari
26 T. Musel
30 K. Owusu
32 L. Bazzoli
39 G. Swajkowski

Coach: Uwe Koschinat

Dortmund

3-5-2
1 G. Kobel G
39 F. Mane D
3 W. Anton D
5 R. Bensebaini D
2 Y. Couto M
13 P. Gross M
20 M. Sabitzer M
8 F. Nmecha M
24 D. Svensson M
9 S. Guirassy F
14 M. Beier F
Bench (9)
33 A. Meyer
6 S. Ozcan
7 J. Bellingham
10 J. Brandt
21 G. Reyna
27 K. Adeyemi
37 C. Campbell
42 A. Kabar
49 Y. Luhrs

Coach: Niko Kovac

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Willenborg · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.