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Copa del Rey

Referee: José Munuera

Real Madrid

S U S S S

5–2

Full-time

Celta

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,7

3,3

Scored

3,3

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 1/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

5,0

6,0

Scored

5,0

Conceded

0,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+5,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

23 Shots 12

11 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 6

3 Offside 5

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 37. · Celta 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Osasuna	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Valencia	4	4	0	0	+7	12
5	Getafe	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Leganes	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Celta	3	3	0	0	+12	9
8	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	9
9	Pontevedra	4	3	0	1	+6	9
10	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Almeria	4	3	0	1	+4	9
12	Elche	4	3	0	1	+4	9
13	Ourense CF	4	3	0	1	+1	9
14	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	6
15	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+4	6
17	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+2	6
20	Santander	3	2	0	1	+1	6
21	Ferrol	3	2	0	1	+1	6
22	Cartagena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	Marbella	3	2	0	1	+1	6
24	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+0	6
25	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
26	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
27	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
28	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Granada	3	1	1	1	+1	4
30	Tenerife	3	1	1	1	+1	4
31	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Zamora	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	Orihuela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
35	Deportiva Minera	3	1	1	1	+0	4
36	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
37	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+5	3
38	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
39	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
40	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Barakaldo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
59	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
60	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
61	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
62	Ponferradina	3	0	2	1	-2	2
63	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Ath Bilbao	2	0	1	1	-1	1
70	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
71	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
72	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
73	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
74	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
75	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
119	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
122	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
124	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
125	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pontevedra	4	3	0	1	+6	9
2	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Ourense CF	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Almeria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
8	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Sociedad	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Elche	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Santander	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Marbella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
21	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
22	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
23	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Ponferradina	2	0	1	1	-2	1
31	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
33	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-5	1
34	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Barakaldo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Granada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Eldense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
76	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
77	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
79	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
80	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
81	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
82	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
83	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
84	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
85	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Osasuna	4	4	0	0	+8	12
3	Valencia	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Getafe	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Leganes	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Celta	3	3	0	0	+12	9
7	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+8	9
8	Vallecano	4	3	0	1	+6	9
9	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+4	6
12	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
20	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
25	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
28	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
29	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
31	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.