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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero Lopez

Real Madrid

S U S U U

4–0

Full-time

Celta

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 47%

74%

19%

Points per game

2,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

52%

44%

Both score Ø 54%

52%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,50 xG 0,77

63% Possession 37%

24 Shots 11

13 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 11

12 Corners 1

8 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Celta 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	27	20	6	1	+38	+24.4	66
2	Girona	28	19	5	4	+26	+10.1	62
3	Barcelona	28	18	7	3	+23	+33.0	61
4	Ath Madrid	28	17	4	7	+23	+19.3	55
5	Ath Bilbao	28	15	8	5	+22	+14.9	53
6	Sociedad	28	11	10	7	+9	+4.5	43
7	Betis	27	10	12	5	+4	-3.6	42
8	Valencia	27	11	7	9	+1	-3.1	40
9	Las Palmas	28	10	7	11	-2	-16.1	37
10	Osasuna	28	10	6	12	-8	-6.0	36
11	Getafe	28	8	11	9	-6	-6.9	35
12	Villarreal	27	8	8	11	-6	-3.9	32
13	Alaves	28	8	8	12	-7	+1.6	32
14	Sevilla	27	6	9	12	-7	-11.4	27
15	Mallorca	28	5	12	11	-11	-6.0	27
16	Vallecano	28	5	11	12	-15	-4.4	26
17	Celta	27	5	9	13	-9	-5.0	24
18	Cadiz	28	3	13	12	-18	-14.3	22
19	Granada	27	2	8	17	-27	-15.2	14
20	Almeria	27	0	9	18	-30	-11.9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	14	13	1	0	+21	+18.3	40
2	Real Madrid	13	11	2	0	+24	+18.5	35
3	Girona	14	11	2	1	+21	+9.3	35
4	Barcelona	15	11	1	3	+14	+18.1	34
5	Ath Bilbao	14	10	3	1	+20	+15.3	33
6	Valencia	14	8	4	2	+10	+3.2	28
7	Betis	14	7	6	1	+9	+7.4	27
8	Getafe	13	7	4	2	+4	-0.1	25
9	Las Palmas	14	6	4	4	+5	-4.4	22
10	Alaves	14	6	3	5	-1	+5.7	21
11	Osasuna	14	6	3	5	-2	+1.3	21
12	Sociedad	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.6	20
13	Mallorca	14	4	7	3	+1	-0.9	19
14	Sevilla	14	4	5	5	-1	-3.0	17
15	Villarreal	14	4	4	6	+0	+4.8	16
16	Cadiz	14	3	7	4	-4	+3.1	16
17	Celta	14	3	4	7	-7	+4.6	13
18	Granada	14	2	6	6	-7	-3.7	12
19	Vallecano	13	1	7	5	-10	-2.9	10
20	Almeria	13	0	7	6	-11	+0.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	9	4	1	+14	+5.9	31
2	Barcelona	13	7	6	0	+9	+14.9	27
3	Girona	14	8	3	3	+5	+0.8	27
4	Sociedad	15	6	5	4	+5	+1.9	23
5	Ath Bilbao	14	5	5	4	+2	-0.5	20
6	Vallecano	15	4	4	7	-5	-1.6	16
7	Villarreal	13	4	4	5	-6	-8.7	16
8	Ath Madrid	14	4	3	7	+2	+1.0	15
9	Betis	13	3	6	4	-5	-11.0	15
10	Osasuna	14	4	3	7	-6	-7.4	15
11	Las Palmas	14	4	3	7	-7	-11.7	15
12	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-9	-6.3	12
13	Celta	13	2	5	6	-2	-9.6	11
14	Alaves	14	2	5	7	-6	-4.1	11
15	Sevilla	13	2	4	7	-6	-8.4	10
16	Getafe	15	1	7	7	-10	-6.8	10
17	Mallorca	14	1	5	8	-12	-5.1	8
18	Cadiz	14	0	6	8	-14	-17.3	6
19	Almeria	14	0	2	12	-19	-12.1	2
20	Granada	13	0	2	11	-20	-11.5	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.