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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martínez

Vallecano

T T T S S

3–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 51%

33%

69%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

47%

56%

Both score Ø 52%

60%

44%

Average goals

2,1

2,9

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,64 xG 0,65

34% Possession 66%

14 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vallecano 13. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	2	3	+31	+17.4	38
2	Real Madrid	16	11	3	2	+21	+15.7	36
3	Ath Madrid	16	10	5	1	+19	+15.6	35
4	Ath Bilbao	17	9	5	3	+11	+7.4	32
5	Mallorca	18	8	3	7	-3	-0.7	27
6	Villarreal	15	7	5	3	+2	+6.9	26
7	Osasuna	17	6	7	4	-3	-5.4	25
8	Sociedad	16	7	3	6	+5	+4.2	24
9	Girona	17	6	4	7	-2	+3.6	22
10	Sevilla	17	6	4	7	-5	-4.5	22
11	Betis	16	5	6	5	-2	+5.6	21
12	Celta	17	6	3	8	-3	+4.9	21
13	Vallecano	15	5	4	6	-1	-1.2	19
14	Las Palmas	16	5	3	8	-5	-14.7	18
15	Getafe	16	3	7	6	-2	-0.9	16
16	Alaves	16	4	3	9	-9	-5.7	15
17	Leganes	16	3	6	7	-9	-13.1	15
18	Espanol	16	4	2	10	-13	-14.0	14
19	Valladolid	17	3	3	11	-22	-13.2	12
20	Valencia	15	2	4	9	-10	-8.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	7	0	1	+13	+11.6	21
2	Ath Bilbao	10	6	3	1	+9	+4.4	21
3	Ath Madrid	8	6	2	0	+12	+14.3	20
4	Osasuna	9	5	3	1	+5	+3.1	18
5	Celta	9	5	2	2	+6	+4.7	17
6	Sevilla	9	5	1	3	+0	+1.6	16
7	Barcelona	6	5	0	1	+14	+11.1	15
8	Betis	8	4	3	1	+4	+9.9	15
9	Mallorca	10	4	3	3	-2	-3.1	15
10	Getafe	9	3	5	1	+4	+5.1	14
11	Girona	8	4	1	3	+2	+5.1	13
12	Espanol	8	4	1	3	+1	-1.7	13
13	Villarreal	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.0	12
14	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+0	-2.3	11
15	Sociedad	8	3	1	4	+0	+3.4	10
16	Leganes	8	3	1	4	-4	-2.4	10
17	Las Palmas	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.6	9
18	Valladolid	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.0	9
19	Valencia	7	2	2	3	+1	-0.2	8
20	Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	7	2	2	+17	+6.4	23
2	Real Madrid	8	4	3	1	+8	+4.0	15
3	Ath Madrid	8	4	3	1	+7	+1.3	15
4	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+5	+0.8	14
5	Villarreal	8	4	2	2	+0	+4.9	14
6	Mallorca	8	4	0	4	-1	+2.4	12
7	Ath Bilbao	7	3	2	2	+2	+3.0	11
8	Vallecano	8	3	2	3	+0	-4.8	11
9	Las Palmas	8	3	0	5	-4	-10.1	9
10	Girona	9	2	3	4	-4	-1.6	9
11	Osasuna	8	1	4	3	-8	-8.6	7
12	Sevilla	8	1	3	4	-5	-6.1	6
13	Betis	8	1	3	4	-6	-4.2	6
14	Leganes	8	0	5	3	-5	-10.7	5
15	Celta	8	1	1	6	-9	+0.2	4
16	Alaves	9	1	1	7	-9	-3.4	4
17	Valladolid	8	1	0	7	-16	-7.2	3
18	Getafe	7	0	2	5	-6	-6.0	2
19	Valencia	8	0	2	6	-11	-7.7	2
20	Espanol	8	0	1	7	-14	-12.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.