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Serie A

Referee: M Marcenaro

Lazio

T U S S S

1–1

Full-time

Parma

S U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 32%

37%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

27%

33%

Both score Ø 32%

23%

40%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,40 xG 0,32

61% Possession 39%

7 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 8. · Parma 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	30	22	3	5	+42	+34.0	69
2	Milan	30	18	9	3	+24	+16.9	63
3	Napoli	30	19	5	6	+16	+10.5	62
4	Como	30	16	9	5	+31	+21.7	57
5	Juventus	30	15	9	6	+23	+29.3	54
6	Roma	30	17	3	10	+17	+7.0	54
7	Atalanta	30	13	11	6	+14	+11.4	50
8	Lazio	30	11	10	9	+3	-6.9	43
9	Bologna	30	12	6	12	+2	+0.1	42
10	Sassuolo	31	12	6	13	-3	-14.3	42
11	Udinese	30	11	6	13	-7	-10.3	39
12	Parma	30	8	10	12	-17	-17.9	34
13	Genoa	30	8	9	13	-6	+0.7	33
14	Torino	30	9	6	15	-19	-8.3	33
15	Fiorentina	31	7	11	13	-8	+6.2	32
16	Cagliari	31	7	9	15	-12	-15.2	30
17	Cremonese	30	6	9	15	-19	-19.2	27
18	Lecce	30	7	6	17	-19	-19.7	27
19	Pisa	30	2	12	16	-31	-17.6	18
20	Verona	31	3	9	19	-31	-8.4	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	2	2	+26	+21.9	35
2	Napoli	14	10	4	0	+12	+1.5	34
3	Como	16	9	5	2	+20	+16.6	32
4	Roma	15	10	2	3	+14	+9.5	32
5	Atalanta	16	9	5	2	+12	+14.1	32
6	Milan	15	9	4	2	+9	+9.9	31
7	Juventus	15	8	6	1	+17	+18.3	30
8	Lazio	15	7	4	4	+4	+0.5	25
9	Sassuolo	16	7	2	7	-3	-9.1	23
10	Torino	15	6	2	7	-4	-4.2	20
11	Genoa	16	5	4	7	-2	+3.3	19
12	Udinese	15	5	4	6	-3	-2.3	19
13	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-4	+2.3	17
14	Cagliari	15	4	4	7	-2	-6.3	16
15	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-3.5	16
16	Fiorentina	15	3	6	6	-1	+9.6	15
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-10	-8.2	14
18	Cremonese	14	2	6	6	-9	-4.5	12
19	Pisa	15	2	4	9	-11	-4.1	10
20	Verona	15	1	4	10	-12	-2.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	1	3	+16	+12.1	34
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+15	+7.0	32
3	Napoli	16	9	1	6	+4	+9.0	28
4	Como	14	7	4	3	+11	+5.2	25
5	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+6	-2.2	25
6	Juventus	15	7	3	5	+6	+10.9	24
7	Roma	15	7	1	7	+3	-2.5	22
8	Udinese	15	6	2	7	-4	-8.0	20
9	Parma	15	5	5	5	-7	-9.7	20
10	Sassuolo	15	5	4	6	+0	-5.2	19
11	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+2	-2.7	18
12	Lazio	15	4	6	5	-1	-7.4	18
13	Fiorentina	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.4	17
14	Cremonese	16	4	3	9	-10	-14.7	15
15	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-4	-2.5	14
16	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-10	-8.9	14
17	Torino	15	3	4	8	-15	-4.1	13
18	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-11	-16.2	11
19	Verona	16	2	5	9	-19	-6.4	11
20	Pisa	15	0	8	7	-20	-13.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.