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La Liga

Referee: J Munuera

Barcelona

S S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Celta

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

4,0

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 60%

84%

35%

Points per game

2,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

81%

45%

Both score Ø 63%

61%

65%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,23 xG 1,41

61% Possession 39%

10 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Celta 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	31	26	1	4	+54	+39.6	79
2	Real Madrid	32	23	4	5	+37	+34.2	73
3	Villarreal	31	19	4	8	+20	+9.9	61
4	Ath Madrid	32	17	6	9	+18	+7.9	57
5	Betis	32	12	13	7	+8	+9.5	49
6	Celta	31	11	11	9	+4	+3.5	44
7	Getafe	32	13	5	14	-4	-12.0	44
8	Sociedad	32	11	9	12	+0	+0.6	42
9	Ath Bilbao	32	12	5	15	-11	+8.3	41
10	Osasuna	32	10	9	13	-2	-3.2	39
11	Espanol	31	10	8	13	-11	-4.3	38
12	Girona	32	9	11	12	-13	-11.1	38
13	Valencia	32	9	9	14	-12	+3.4	36
14	Elche	32	8	11	13	-7	-18.8	35
15	Mallorca	32	9	8	15	-9	-17.5	35
16	Vallecano	31	8	11	12	-9	+3.6	35
17	Sevilla	31	9	7	15	-12	-17.0	34
18	Alaves	32	8	9	15	-12	-3.9	33
19	Levante	31	7	8	16	-15	-12.9	29
20	Oviedo	31	6	9	16	-24	-19.7	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	16	0	0	+42	+26.6	48
2	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
3	Ath Madrid	16	13	1	2	+21	+16.5	40
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Elche	17	8	7	2	+10	-2.0	31
6	Osasuna	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.2	29
7	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+7	+0.3	29
8	Ath Bilbao	17	9	2	6	+2	+10.7	29
9	Sociedad	17	8	4	5	+7	+7.2	28
10	Betis	15	7	5	3	+10	+9.4	26
11	Vallecano	15	5	8	2	+6	+10.2	23
12	Valencia	15	6	5	4	+3	+10.6	23
13	Girona	16	6	4	6	-5	-6.7	22
14	Getafe	15	6	3	6	+3	-2.5	21
15	Alaves	15	5	6	4	+1	+1.6	21
16	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
17	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-2	-3.9	19
18	Celta	16	4	5	7	-1	+4.7	17
19	Levante	16	4	5	7	-7	-3.9	17
20	Oviedo	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	10	1	4	+12	+13.0	31
2	Real Madrid	15	9	3	3	+12	+11.0	30
3	Celta	15	7	6	2	+5	-1.2	27
4	Villarreal	16	7	3	6	-1	+0.3	24
5	Betis	17	5	8	4	-2	+0.1	23
6	Getafe	17	7	2	8	-7	-9.5	23
7	Ath Madrid	16	4	5	7	-3	-8.6	17
8	Espanol	16	4	5	7	-8	-5.4	17
9	Girona	16	3	7	6	-8	-4.4	16
10	Sevilla	15	4	3	8	-10	-13.2	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-15	-7.2	13
13	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
14	Alaves	17	3	3	11	-13	-5.5	12
15	Ath Bilbao	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.4	12
16	Vallecano	16	3	3	10	-15	-6.6	12
17	Osasuna	17	2	4	11	-11	-10.4	10
18	Oviedo	16	2	4	10	-17	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	15	1	3	11	-16	-17.8	6
20	Elche	15	0	4	11	-17	-16.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.