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Coupe de France
Referee: J Pignard
Toulouse
T S S T T
6–1
Full-time
Rodez
T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Rodez
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,5
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
100%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
2,2
1,0
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Coupe de France · 3/5 matches
Win Ø 70%
100%
40%
Points per game
3,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
67%
40%
Both score Ø 54%
67%
40%
Average goals
4,7
2,0
Scored
4,0
1,2
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+3,3
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 5–0

67% Possession 33%
23 Shots 10
13 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 8
12 Corners 6
3 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 10
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Toulouse 9. · Rodez 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Grenoble 6 5 0 1 +7 15
2 Paris FC 5 4 1 0 +10 13
3 Annecy 5 3 2 0 +13 11
4 Vierzon FC 5 3 1 1 +8 10
5 Belfort 4 3 1 0 +6 10
6 Lyon 4 3 1 0 +5 10
7 Le Puy Foot 4 3 1 0 +4 10
8 Grasse 4 3 1 0 +4 10
9 Toulouse 3 3 0 0 +10 9
10 Marseille 3 3 0 0 +4 9
11 Pau FC 4 3 0 1 +3 9
12 Stade Plabennec 4 3 0 1 +3 9
13 Rodez 5 2 3 0 +2 9
14 Nantes 4 2 2 0 +3 8
15 Dunkerque 3 2 1 0 +7 7
16 Les Herbiers 4 2 1 1 +5 7
17 Lille 3 2 1 0 +4 7
18 Lens 4 2 1 1 +3 7
19 Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 4 2 1 1 +1 7
20 Chambéry 4 2 1 1 +0 7
21 Niort 4 2 1 1 +0 7
22 Évreux 27 4 2 1 1 -2 7
23 Paris SG 3 2 0 1 +8 6
24 Reims 3 2 0 1 +8 6
25 Nimes 3 2 0 1 +6 6
26 Granville 3 2 0 1 +5 6
27 Bordeaux 3 2 0 1 +3 6
28 Bastia 4 1 3 0 +3 6
29 Thaon 4 1 3 0 +3 6
30 Chateauroux 3 2 0 1 +2 6
31 Metz 3 2 0 1 +1 6
32 Avranches 3 2 0 1 +1 6
33 Avoine OCC 3 2 0 1 +1 6
34 Olympique St Quentin 3 2 0 1 +0 6
35 La Châtaigneraie 3 2 0 1 -2 6
36 Amiens 3 1 2 0 +10 5
37 Lorient 3 1 2 0 +6 5
38 Angers 3 1 2 0 +1 5
39 Chamalières 4 1 2 1 -1 5
40 Pays de Cassel 4 1 2 1 -6 5
41 Auxerre 3 1 1 1 +3 4
42 Sochaux 2 1 1 0 +3 4
43 Caen 2 1 1 0 +3 4
44 Reims Sainte-Anne 2 1 1 0 +3 4
45 Guingamp 2 1 1 0 +2 4
46 Saint-Estève Perpignan 2 1 1 0 +2 4
47 Limonest 2 1 1 0 +2 4
48 Bellevue Nantes 2 1 1 0 +2 4
49 Aubagne 3 1 1 1 +1 4
50 Valenciennes 3 1 1 1 +1 4
51 Jura Sud Foot 3 1 1 1 +1 4
52 Reipertswiller 2 1 1 0 +1 4
53 Drancy 2 1 1 0 +1 4
54 Bergerac 2 1 1 0 +1 4
55 La Tamponnaise 3 1 1 1 +0 4
56 Wasquehal 3 1 1 1 -1 4
57 Linas-Montlhery 3 1 1 1 -1 4
58 Stade Pontivy 3 1 1 1 -2 4
59 Villerupt Thil 3 1 1 1 -3 4
60 Loon-Plage 3 1 1 1 -4 4
61 Gobelins 2 1 0 1 +4 3
62 Villefranche 2 1 0 1 +3 3
63 Epinal 2 1 0 1 +3 3
64 Louhans-Cuiseaux 2 1 0 1 +2 3
65 Rumilly Vallières 2 1 0 1 +2 3
66 Thiers 2 1 0 1 +1 3
67 Châtellerault 2 1 0 1 +1 3
68 Olympique Marcquois 2 1 0 1 +1 3
69 Brest 2 1 0 1 +0 3
70 Lyon Duchere 2 1 0 1 +0 3
71 Colomiers 2 1 0 1 +0 3
72 Union Cosnoise 2 1 0 1 +0 3
73 Rennes 2 1 0 1 +0 3
74 Haguenau 2 1 0 1 +0 3
75 Onet-le-Château 2 1 0 1 +0 3
76 Roche Saint-Genest 2 1 0 1 +0 3
77 Bourges Foot 18 3 0 3 0 +0 3
78 Vire 3 1 0 2 -1 3
79 Boé Bon Encontre 2 1 0 1 -1 3
80 Ajaccio 2 1 0 1 -1 3
81 Marnaval 2 1 0 1 -1 3
82 Mâcon 2 1 0 1 -2 3
83 Feignies-Aulnoye 2 1 0 1 -2 3
84 Stade Béthunois 2 1 0 1 -3 3
85 Marcoussis Nozay 2 1 0 1 -5 3
86 Aiglon 2 1 0 1 -9 3
87 Alençon 2 0 2 0 +0 2
88 Oissel 2 0 2 0 +0 2
89 St-Pryvé St-Hilaire 2 0 2 0 +0 2
90 Plouvorn 2 0 2 0 +0 2
91 Hyères 3 0 2 1 -2 2
92 Vannes 3 0 2 1 -2 2
93 Lannion 3 0 2 1 -6 2
94 Le Havre 1 0 1 0 +0 1
95 Monaco 1 0 1 0 +0 1
96 Saint-Malo 1 0 1 0 +0 1
97 Olympique d'Alès 1 0 1 0 +0 1
98 Le Mans 1 0 1 0 +0 1
99 Alberes Argelès 1 0 1 0 +0 1
100 Red Star 1 0 1 0 +0 1
101 Angoulême 1 0 1 0 +0 1
102 Poissy 1 0 1 0 +0 1
103 Laval 1 0 1 0 +0 1
104 Dijon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
105 Toulon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
106 Quevilly Rouen 1 0 1 0 +0 1
107 Concarneau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
108 Bourgoin-Jallieu 1 0 1 0 +0 1
109 Gueugnon 1 0 1 0 +0 1
110 Châteaubriant 1 0 1 0 +0 1
111 Fleury 91 1 0 1 0 +0 1
112 AC Paris 15 1 0 1 0 +0 1
113 Chambly Thelle FC 1 0 1 0 +0 1
114 Le Geldar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
115 Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau 1 0 1 0 +0 1
116 Sporting Baie-Mahault 1 0 1 0 +0 1
117 St Etienne 1 0 1 0 +0 1
118 Strasbourg 1 0 1 0 +0 1
119 Prix-lès-Mézières 1 0 1 0 +0 1
120 Vitré 1 0 1 0 +0 1
121 Saint-Apollinaire 1 0 1 0 +0 1
122 Clermont 1 0 1 0 +0 1
123 Merpins 1 0 1 0 +0 1
124 Sablé 1 0 1 0 +0 1
125 Saint-Pierroise 1 0 1 0 +0 1
126 Trélissac 2 0 1 1 -1 1
127 Drapeau Fougères 2 0 1 1 -1 1
128 Orvault SF 2 0 1 1 -1 1
129 Aubervilliers 2 0 1 1 -1 1
130 Ergué-Gaberic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
131 Lège-Cap-Ferret 2 0 1 1 -3 1
132 Grand Santi 2 0 1 1 -3 1
133 Montauban TG 2 0 1 1 -4 1
134 Velay 1 0 0 1 -1 0
135 Nancy 1 0 0 1 -1 0
136 Agde 1 0 0 1 -1 0
137 Le Pays du Valois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
138 Montpellier 1 0 0 1 -1 0
139 Hienghène Sport 1 0 0 1 -1 0
140 Golden Lion 1 0 0 1 -1 0
141 Feurs 1 0 0 1 -1 0
142 Savigneux Montbrison 1 0 0 1 -1 0
143 Biars-Bretenoux 1 0 0 1 -1 0
144 Chaumont 1 0 0 1 -1 0
145 Escaudain 1 0 0 1 -1 0
146 Raon l'Etape 1 0 0 1 -1 0
147 Poitiers 1 0 0 1 -1 0
148 Nice 1 0 0 1 -1 0
149 Gallia Lucciana 1 0 0 1 -1 0
150 Mérignac-Arlac 1 0 0 1 -1 0
151 Jura Dolois 1 0 0 1 -1 0
152 Saint-Priest 1 0 0 1 -1 0
153 Grand-Quevilly 1 0 0 1 -1 0
154 Saint-Grégoire 1 0 0 1 -1 0
155 Éperlecques 1 0 0 1 -1 0
156 Cholet 1 0 0 1 -1 0
157 Chauray 1 0 0 1 -1 0
158 Gandrange 1 0 0 1 -1 0
159 NDC Angers 1 0 0 1 -2 0
160 SA Mérignac 1 0 0 1 -2 0
161 Les Ulis 1 0 0 1 -2 0
162 Vaulx 1 0 0 1 -2 0
163 Villers-lès-Nancy 1 0 0 1 -2 0
164 Saint-Doulchard 1 0 0 1 -2 0
165 Narbonne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
166 Cambrai 1 0 0 1 -2 0
167 Troyes 1 0 0 1 -2 0
168 Andrézieux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
169 Chartres-de-Bretagne 1 0 0 1 -2 0
170 Fréjus St-Raphaël 1 0 0 1 -2 0
171 Cournon 1 0 0 1 -2 0
172 Lescar 1 0 0 1 -2 0
173 Basse Goulaine 1 0 0 1 -2 0
174 Pont Saintte-Maxence 1 0 0 1 -2 0
175 Auray 1 0 0 1 -2 0
176 JA Armentières 1 0 0 1 -2 0
177 Vénissieux 1 0 0 1 -2 0
178 Bondues 1 0 0 1 -2 0
179 Geispolsheim 1 0 0 1 -3 0
180 Illzach Modenheim 1 0 0 1 -3 0
181 Téteghem 1 0 0 1 -3 0
182 Bastia-Borgo 1 0 0 1 -3 0
183 Hombourg-Haut 1 0 0 1 -3 0
184 Salinieres Aigues Mortes 1 0 0 1 -3 0
185 Beauvais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
186 Sarre Union 1 0 0 1 -3 0
187 Vénus 1 0 0 1 -3 0
188 Stade Bordelais 1 0 0 1 -3 0
189 Saint-Louis Neuweg 1 0 0 1 -3 0
190 Séné 1 0 0 1 -3 0
191 Heillecourt 1 0 0 1 -4 0
192 Havre Caucriauville 1 0 0 1 -4 0
193 Mareuil 1 0 0 1 -5 0
194 Liancourt Clermont 1 0 0 1 -5 0
195 Tarentaise 1 0 0 1 -5 0
196 Diables Noirs 1 0 0 1 -7 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.