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Ligue 1
Referee: M Vernice
Reims
S U T S U
3–0
Full-time
Toulouse
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reims Toulouse
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
50%
100%
Average goals
2,7
4,0
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 34%
29%
38%
Points per game
1,4
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
38%
71%
Both score Ø 61%
54%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
1,1
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,75 xG 1,15
48% Possession 52%
18 Shots 13
6 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Reims 10. · Toulouse 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 24 18 3 3 +36 +1.7 57
2 Marseille 24 16 4 4 +26 +2.2 52
3 Monaco 24 15 5 4 +22 +3.7 50
4 Lens 25 14 8 3 +19 +4.2 50
5 Lille 25 13 5 7 +13 +4.8 44
6 Rennes 24 13 4 7 +16 +1.8 43
7 Lorient 25 11 6 8 +2 -1.0 39
8 Lyon 25 11 5 9 +11 +1.3 38
9 Nice 24 10 8 6 +9 +0.1 38
10 Reims 24 7 13 4 +4 +6.0 34
11 Toulouse 24 9 5 10 -1 +1.8 32
12 Clermont 24 8 6 10 -9 -3.4 30
13 Nantes 24 6 10 8 -4 -3.3 28
14 Montpellier 25 8 3 14 -10 -3.0 27
15 Strasbourg 24 4 9 11 -13 -3.3 21
16 Auxerre 25 5 6 14 -26 +3.2 21
17 Brest 25 4 8 13 -16 -5.3 20
18 Troyes 24 4 7 13 -20 -5.7 19
19 Ajaccio 24 5 3 16 -27 -1.5 18
20 Angers 25 2 4 19 -32 -4.2 10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Reims Toulouse
1–0 J. Ito
D. Lopy
4′
2–0 M. Munetsi
J. Ito
7′
23′
🔁 F. Chaïbi
↦ Rafael Ratão
Half-time 2–0
M. van Bergen 🔁
↦ A. Flips
63′
66′
🔁 S. Hamulic
↦ T. Dallinga
66′
🔁 V. Birmančević
↦ B. Dejaegere
3–0 Y. Abdelhamid
J. Ito
68′
75′
🔁 A. Onaiwu
↦ Z. Aboukhlal
75′
🔁 D. Genreau
↦ B. van den Boomen
J. Cajuste 🔁
↦ M. Munetsi
78′
M. Maolida 🔁
↦ F. Balogun
87′
K. Sierhuis 🔁
↦ J. Ito
88′
M. Busi 🔁
↦ C. Keita
88′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Reims

4-2-3-1
94 Y. Diouf G
32 T. Foket D
43 C. Keita D
5 Y. Abdelhamid D
25 T. De Smet D
21 A. Matusiwa M
17 D. Lopy M
39 J. Ito M
15 M. Munetsi M
70 A. Flips M
29 F. Balogun F
Bench (9)
19 M. van Bergen
8 J. Cajuste
11 M. Maolida
9 K. Sierhuis
4 M. Busi
96 A. Olliero
7 N. Holm
3 K. Doumbia
10 A. Zeneli

Coach: W. Still

Toulouse

4-3-3
30 M. Dupé G
3 M. Desler D
4 A. Rouault D
2 R. Nicolaisen D
15 G. Suazo D
10 B. Dejaegere M
17 S. Spierings M
8 B. van den Boomen M
6 Z. Aboukhlal F
27 T. Dallinga F
21 Rafael Ratão F
Bench (9)
28 F. Chaïbi
29 S. Hamulic
19 V. Birmančević
7 A. Onaiwu
5 D. Genreau
16 K. Haug
23 M. Diarra
26 W. Kamanzi
14 Logan Costa

Coach: P. Montanier

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,12
U
3,52
B
3,44
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,72
U2,5
2,14
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

M Vernice · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.