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Ligue 1

Referee: S Frappart

Toulouse

S S T S S

2–3

Full-time

Marseille

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 52%

39%

65%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

70%

52%

Both score Ø 61%

65%

57%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,99 xG 1,04

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 10

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 11. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	24	18	3	3	+36	+1.7	57
2	Monaco	24	15	5	4	+22	+3.7	50
3	Marseille	23	15	4	4	+25	+3.1	49
4	Lens	24	14	7	3	+19	+2.8	49
5	Rennes	24	13	4	7	+16	+1.8	43
6	Lille	24	12	5	7	+12	+4.0	41
7	Lorient	24	11	6	7	+3	-1.8	39
8	Nice	24	10	8	6	+9	+0.1	38
9	Lyon	24	10	5	9	+9	+1.6	35
10	Reims	24	7	13	4	+4	+6.0	34
11	Toulouse	23	9	5	9	+0	+0.9	32
12	Clermont	24	8	6	10	-9	-3.4	30
13	Nantes	24	6	10	8	-4	-3.3	28
14	Montpellier	24	8	2	14	-10	-1.6	26
15	Strasbourg	24	4	9	11	-13	-3.3	21
16	Brest	24	4	8	12	-15	-4.5	20
17	Troyes	24	4	7	13	-20	-5.7	19
18	Auxerre	24	4	6	14	-27	+4.1	18
19	Ajaccio	24	5	3	16	-27	-1.5	18
20	Angers	24	2	4	18	-30	-4.6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rennes	13	11	0	2	+20	+1.8	33
2	Lens	12	11	0	1	+16	+0.6	33
3	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+17	-0.2	32
4	Lille	12	7	3	2	+6	+2.7	24
5	Monaco	12	7	2	3	+10	+1.9	23
6	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+10	+0.8	23
7	Toulouse	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.7	22
8	Lyon	12	6	3	3	+9	+2.3	21
9	Lorient	12	6	3	3	+5	+1.6	21
10	Nice	12	5	4	3	+6	-0.5	19
11	Reims	11	5	4	2	+5	+5.2	19
12	Nantes	11	4	5	2	+2	-0.6	17
13	Clermont	12	4	2	6	-10	-2.0	14
14	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	-2.1	13
15	Auxerre	12	3	4	5	-9	+2.1	13
16	Strasbourg	13	2	6	5	-5	+0.3	12
17	Brest	12	2	5	5	-7	-0.7	11
18	Troyes	12	1	7	4	-6	-3.1	10
19	Ajaccio	11	2	1	8	-11	-0.5	7
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-12	-2.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	12	8	3	1	+12	+1.8	27
2	Marseille	11	8	2	1	+15	+2.3	26
3	Paris SG	12	8	1	3	+19	+1.8	25
4	Nice	12	5	4	3	+3	+0.6	19
5	Lorient	12	5	3	4	-2	-3.4	18
6	Lille	12	5	2	5	+6	+1.3	17
7	Lens	12	3	7	2	+3	+2.3	16
8	Clermont	12	4	4	4	+1	-1.5	16
9	Reims	13	2	9	2	-1	+0.9	15
10	Lyon	12	4	2	6	+0	-0.7	14
11	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-5	+0.4	13
12	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-6	-2.7	11
13	Ajaccio	13	3	2	8	-16	-1.0	11
14	Rennes	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.0	10
15	Toulouse	11	3	1	7	-6	-0.9	10
16	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-8	-3.6	9
17	Brest	12	2	3	7	-8	-3.8	9
18	Troyes	12	3	0	9	-14	-2.6	9
19	Auxerre	12	1	2	9	-18	+2.0	5
20	Angers	12	1	2	9	-18	-1.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.