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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Estoril

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Benfica

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,2

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

14%

86%

Points per game

0,6

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

86%

71%

Both score Ø 72%

86%

57%

Average goals

4,6

3,4

Scored

2,0

2,4

Conceded

2,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,74 xG 2,64

32% Possession 68%

16 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 9

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 18. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	+8.2	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+10	+7.5	18
3	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.0	16
4	Porto	7	5	1	1	+4	+4.5	16
5	Boavista	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.2	15
6	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+0	+1.3	13
7	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	-3.2	12
8	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.0	11
9	Gil Vicente	8	3	0	5	+3	-3.8	9
10	Casa Pia	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.1	9
11	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-8	-3.2	8
12	Farense	8	2	1	5	+0	-4.0	7
13	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-9	-2.3	7
14	Arouca	7	1	3	3	-3	-0.4	6
15	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.0	6
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.5	5
17	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5
18	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-4	-0.4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+8	-0.9	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.2	9
4	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.1	9
5	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
6	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
7	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+5.1	7
8	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
9	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
10	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
11	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
14	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.6	4
15	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
16	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
17	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.3	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
4	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.1	7
5	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
6	Casa Pia	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.6	7
7	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
8	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	-3	-1.4	7
9	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
11	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.8	3
12	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
13	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
14	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.0	2
15	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	4	0	0	4	-5	-1.7	0
18	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.