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Bundesliga

Referee: S Gishamer

SK Rapid

S U S S S

0–2

Full-time

Sturm Graz

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

SK Rapid Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 50%

46%

54%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

42%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

58%

54%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,31 xG 1,94

66% Possession 34%

5 Shots 16

0 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match SK Rapid 4. · Sturm Graz 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	24	13	3	8	+10	+7.0	42
2	Salzburg	25	11	8	6	+16	+10.2	41
3	LASK	25	12	5	8	+3	+7.9	41
4	SK Rapid	24	11	6	7	+4	-2.2	39
5	Austria Vienna	25	12	3	10	-1	+0.7	39
6	Hartberg	25	8	10	7	+3	-7.7	34
7	Tirol	25	9	7	9	-2	+4.1	34
8	Ried	25	10	4	11	-3	-3.4	34
9	Altach	25	8	9	8	+0	-6.3	33
10	Grazer AK	25	7	8	10	-7	+2.1	29
11	Wolfsberger AC	25	7	6	12	-5	-11.9	27
12	BW Linz	25	5	3	17	-18	-0.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	13	8	2	3	+6	+6.7	26
2	Altach	12	6	5	1	+6	-0.2	23
3	Tirol	13	6	3	4	+2	+2.6	21
4	Ried	13	6	3	4	+1	+1.1	21
5	SK Rapid	12	6	2	4	+4	-0.8	20
6	Grazer AK	13	5	5	3	+2	+3.2	20
7	Salzburg	12	5	3	4	+7	+5.2	18
8	Sturm Graz	12	5	2	5	-2	+1.9	17
9	Austria Vienna	12	5	2	5	-4	+0.8	17
10	Wolfsberger AC	12	4	4	4	+2	-2.6	16
11	Hartberg	13	4	4	5	+0	-1.7	16
12	BW Linz	12	4	1	7	-3	+2.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	12	8	1	3	+12	+5.1	25
2	Salzburg	13	6	5	2	+9	+5.0	23
3	Austria Vienna	13	7	1	5	+3	-0.1	22
4	SK Rapid	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.4	19
5	Hartberg	12	4	6	2	+3	-6.0	18
6	LASK	12	4	3	5	-3	+1.2	15
7	Ried	12	4	1	7	-4	-4.5	13
8	Tirol	12	3	4	5	-4	+1.6	13
9	Wolfsberger AC	13	3	2	8	-7	-9.4	11
10	Altach	13	2	4	7	-6	-6.1	10
11	Grazer AK	12	2	3	7	-9	-1.1	9
12	BW Linz	13	1	2	10	-15	-2.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.