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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Monaco

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Marseille

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 54%

52%

56%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

59%

63%

Both score Ø 54%

59%

48%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,58 xG 2,23

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 8

2 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 7. · Marseille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	20	3	4	+38	+35.0	63
2	Lens	28	19	2	7	+27	+16.8	59
3	Lille	28	15	5	8	+11	+13.7	50
4	Marseille	27	15	4	8	+19	+10.5	49
5	Lyon	28	14	6	8	+12	+6.9	48
6	Rennes	28	13	8	7	+7	+0.9	47
7	Monaco	27	14	4	9	+9	+8.5	46
8	Strasbourg	28	12	7	9	+12	+12.5	43
9	Lorient	28	9	11	8	-4	-2.2	38
10	Toulouse	28	10	7	11	+4	+3.0	37
11	Brest	28	10	6	12	-6	-2.5	36
12	Angers	28	9	6	13	-13	-18.8	33
13	Paris FC	28	7	11	10	-11	-13.3	32
14	Le Havre	28	6	10	12	-13	-11.9	28
15	Nice	28	7	6	15	-22	-15.8	27
16	Auxerre	28	5	8	15	-14	-6.7	23
17	Nantes	27	4	6	17	-21	-15.4	18
18	Metz	28	3	6	19	-35	-21.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	12	0	2	+22	+16.9	36
2	Paris SG	13	11	1	1	+26	+18.3	34
3	Marseille	14	9	3	2	+17	+9.3	30
4	Lyon	13	9	1	3	+11	+8.0	28
5	Monaco	14	9	1	4	+10	+8.9	28
6	Strasbourg	14	8	3	3	+14	+15.1	27
7	Lille	14	8	3	3	+9	+11.5	27
8	Lorient	14	7	6	1	+7	+5.0	27
9	Rennes	14	7	4	3	+10	+7.2	25
10	Brest	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.2	24
11	Le Havre	15	5	7	3	+3	+0.8	22
12	Angers	14	6	3	5	+1	-4.8	21
13	Toulouse	14	5	5	4	+4	+6.6	20
14	Nice	14	4	5	5	-8	-4.3	17
15	Paris FC	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.9	16
16	Auxerre	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.5	15
17	Metz	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.3	10
18	Nantes	14	2	2	10	-12	-7.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	9	2	3	+12	+16.7	29
2	Lens	14	7	2	5	+5	-0.2	23
3	Lille	14	7	2	5	+2	+2.1	23
4	Rennes	14	6	4	4	-3	-6.3	22
5	Lyon	15	5	5	5	+1	-1.1	20
6	Marseille	13	6	1	6	+2	+1.2	19
7	Monaco	13	5	3	5	-1	-0.4	18
8	Toulouse	14	5	2	7	+0	-3.6	17
9	Strasbourg	14	4	4	6	-2	-2.6	16
10	Paris FC	15	3	7	5	-5	-9.4	16
11	Brest	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.7	12
12	Angers	14	3	3	8	-14	-14.0	12
13	Lorient	14	2	5	7	-11	-7.2	11
14	Nantes	13	2	4	7	-9	-8.0	10
15	Nice	14	3	1	10	-14	-11.5	10
16	Auxerre	14	1	5	8	-12	-8.2	8
17	Le Havre	13	1	3	9	-16	-12.7	6
18	Metz	14	1	2	11	-25	-19.9	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.