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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Mainz

S U U T U

0–1

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 34%

29%

39%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

75%

64%

Both score Ø 61%

61%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

2,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 15. · Hoffenheim 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	28	20	4	4	+53	64
2	Dortmund	28	17	6	5	+40	57
3	Leverkusen	29	17	5	7	+18	56
4	RB Leipzig	28	15	10	3	+41	55
5	M'gladbach	28	16	5	7	+19	53
6	Wolfsburg	28	11	9	8	+6	42
7	Hoffenheim	28	11	6	11	-9	39
8	Freiburg	29	10	8	11	-3	38
9	Schalke 04	28	9	10	9	-11	37
10	Hertha	28	9	8	11	-9	35
11	FC Koln	28	10	4	14	-8	34
12	Augsburg	28	8	7	13	-14	31
13	Union Berlin	28	9	4	15	-15	31
14	Ein Frankfurt	27	8	5	14	-8	29
15	Mainz	28	8	4	16	-24	28
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	28	6	9	13	-22	27
17	Werder Bremen	27	5	7	15	-30	22
18	Paderborn	28	4	7	17	-24	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	14	10	3	1	+34	33
2	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+30	32
3	M'gladbach	14	9	2	3	+12	29
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	6	1	+19	27
5	Leverkusen	14	7	4	3	+9	25
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	6	4	4	+9	22
7	FC Koln	14	6	3	5	+4	21
8	Schalke 04	14	5	6	3	-3	21
9	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	+0	20
10	Freiburg	14	6	2	6	+0	20
11	Augsburg	14	5	4	5	+2	19
12	Hoffenheim	15	6	1	8	-13	19
13	Wolfsburg	14	4	6	4	+1	18
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	4	6	-9	16
15	Hertha	14	4	3	7	-10	15
16	Mainz	14	4	2	8	-11	14
17	Paderborn	14	2	2	10	-14	8
18	Werder Bremen	13	1	3	9	-21	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	10	2	2	+23	32
2	Leverkusen	15	10	1	4	+9	31
3	RB Leipzig	14	8	4	2	+22	28
4	M'gladbach	14	7	3	4	+7	24
5	Dortmund	14	7	3	4	+6	24
6	Wolfsburg	14	7	3	4	+5	24
7	Hoffenheim	13	5	5	3	+4	20
8	Hertha	14	5	5	4	+1	20
9	Freiburg	15	4	6	5	-3	18
10	Schalke 04	14	4	4	6	-8	16
11	Werder Bremen	14	4	4	6	-9	16
12	Mainz	14	4	2	8	-13	14
13	FC Koln	14	4	1	9	-12	13
14	Augsburg	14	3	3	8	-16	12
15	Paderborn	14	2	5	7	-10	11
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	2	5	7	-13	11
17	Union Berlin	14	3	2	9	-15	11
18	Ein Frankfurt	13	2	1	10	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.