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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Hoffenheim

S S S S S

1–5

Full-time

Mainz

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

55%

27%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 73%

64%

82%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

64%

Average goals

2,7

3,8

Scored

1,5

1,1

Conceded

1,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%

22 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

14 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Hoffenheim 8. · Mainz 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	12	8	1	3	+11	25
2	RB Leipzig	12	7	3	2	+20	24
3	Bayern Munich	12	7	3	2	+17	24
4	Freiburg	12	6	4	2	+8	22
5	Schalke 04	12	6	4	2	+7	22
6	Dortmund	12	5	5	2	+8	20
7	Wolfsburg	12	5	5	2	+3	20
8	Hoffenheim	11	6	2	3	+2	20
9	Leverkusen	12	5	4	3	+2	19
10	Ein Frankfurt	12	5	2	5	+3	17
11	Union Berlin	12	5	1	6	-2	16
12	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-7	13
13	Werder Bremen	12	2	5	5	-7	11
14	Hertha	12	3	2	7	-8	11
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	3	2	7	-8	11
16	Mainz	11	3	0	8	-18	9
17	FC Koln	12	2	1	9	-16	7
18	Paderborn	12	1	2	9	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+12	14
2	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	2	1	+7	14
3	Bayern Munich	6	4	1	1	+13	13
4	M'gladbach	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	Union Berlin	7	4	0	3	+1	12
6	RB Leipzig	6	3	2	1	+10	11
7	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+4	11
8	Leverkusen	7	2	4	1	+2	10
9	Schalke 04	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+0	9
11	Wolfsburg	6	2	3	1	+0	9
12	Augsburg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	2	1	3	-4	7
14	Mainz	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Hertha	5	2	0	3	-3	6
16	Werder Bremen	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	FC Koln	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Paderborn	6	1	0	5	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+10	13
2	Schalke 04	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	M'gladbach	6	4	0	2	+4	12
4	Bayern Munich	6	3	2	1	+4	11
5	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+4	11
6	Wolfsburg	6	3	2	1	+3	11
7	Hoffenheim	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Leverkusen	5	3	0	2	+0	9
9	Werder Bremen	6	1	3	2	-2	6
10	Dortmund	6	1	3	2	-4	6
11	Hertha	7	1	2	4	-5	5
12	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-8	5
13	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	FC Koln	7	1	1	5	-11	4
16	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Mainz	6	1	0	5	-17	3
18	Paderborn	6	0	2	4	-8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.