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Bundesliga
Referee: M Schmidt
Bayern Munich
S S T S U
5–2
Full-time
Augsburg
U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Augsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,8
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,2
Scored
2,5
0,8
Conceded
1,2
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches
Win Ø 50%
70%
30%
Points per game
2,3
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
79%
45%
Both score Ø 63%
73%
52%
Average goals
4,1
2,5
Scored
2,8
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,6
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

70% Possession 30%
24 Shots 9
13 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 10
10 Corners 2
1 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Augsburg 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 33 23 6 4 +52 75
2 RB Leipzig 33 19 8 6 +29 65
3 Dortmund 33 19 4 10 +27 61
4 Wolfsburg 33 17 10 6 +25 61
5 Ein Frankfurt 33 15 12 6 +14 57
6 Leverkusen 33 14 10 9 +16 52
7 Union Berlin 33 11 14 8 +6 47
8 M'gladbach 33 12 10 11 +6 46
9 Stuttgart 33 12 9 12 +3 45
10 Freiburg 33 12 9 12 +2 45
11 Hoffenheim 33 10 10 13 -3 40
12 Augsburg 33 10 6 17 -15 36
13 Mainz 33 9 9 15 -18 36
14 Hertha 33 8 11 14 -10 35
15 Bielefeld 33 8 8 17 -28 32
16 Werder Bremen 33 7 10 16 -19 31
17 FC Koln 33 7 9 17 -27 30
18 Schalke 04 33 3 7 23 -60 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bayern Munich Augsburg
0–1 J. Gouweleeuw
own goal
9′
1–1 S. Gnabry
23′
26′
D. Caligiuri
penalty missed
2–1 J. Kimmich
K. Coman
33′
3–1 K. Coman
D. Alaba
43′
Half-time 3–1
46′
🔁 D. Caligiuri
↦ M. Suchy
46′
🔁 M. Pedersen
↦ R. Framberger
S. Gnabry 🔁
↦ L. Sane
61′
K. Coman 🔁
↦ J. Musiala
61′
J. Boateng 🔁
↦ J. Martinez
61′
67′
🔁 M. Richter
↦ F. Jensen
67′
A. Hahn 3–2
L. Benes
69′
🟨 M. Suchy
72′
F. Niederlechner 3–3
A. Hahn
T. Muller 🔁
↦ M. Choupo-Moting
72′
D. Alaba 🔁
↦ C. Tolisso
73′
76′
🔁 F. Niederlechner
↦ A. Finnbogason
L. Hernandez 🟨
83′
87′
🔁 A. Hahn
↦ L. Petkov
4–3 R. Lewandowski
90′
Full-time 4–3

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 Manuel Neuer G
5 Benjamin Pavard D
17 Jérôme Boateng D
21 Lucas Hernández D
19 Alphonso Davies D
6 Joshua Kimmich M
27 David Alaba M
29 Kingsley Coman M
25 Thomas Müller M
7 Serge Gnabry M
9 Robert Lewandowski F
Bench (9)
35 Alexander Nübel
20 Bouna Sarr
4 Niklas Süle
22 Marc Roca
24 Corentin Tolisso
42 Jamal Musiala
8 Javi Martínez
10 Leroy Sané
13 Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

Coach: H. Flick

Augsburg

4-2-3-1
1 Rafał Gikiewicz G
2 Robert Gumny D
6 Jeffrey Gouweleeuw D
36 Reece Oxford D
3 Mads Pedersen D
18 László Bénes M
25 Carlos Gruezo M
28 André Hahn M
23 Marco Richter M
20 Daniel Caligiuri M
7 Florian Niederlechner F
Bench (9)
40 Tomáš Koubek
32 Raphael Framberger
5 Marek Suchý
24 Fredrik Jensen
45 Lukas Petkov
33 Tobias Strobl
8 Rani Khedira
27 Alfreð Finnbogason
11 Michael Gregoritsch

Coach: M. Weinzierl

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,13
U
9,90
B
18,62
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,16
U2,5
5,20
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Schmidt · 27 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.