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La Liga

Referee: Jose Luis Munuera Montero

Real Madrid

U S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 53%

65%

41%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

43%

57%

Both score Ø 58%

51%

65%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,6

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

55% Possession 45%

14 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 2. · Villarreal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	37	25	8	4	+41	83
2	Real Madrid	37	24	9	4	+38	81
3	Barcelona	37	23	7	7	+46	76
4	Sevilla	37	23	5	9	+19	74
5	Sociedad	37	16	11	10	+20	59
6	Villarreal	37	15	13	9	+17	58
7	Betis	37	16	10	11	-1	58
8	Celta	37	14	11	12	-1	53
9	Ath Bilbao	37	11	13	13	+6	46
10	Granada	37	13	6	18	-18	45
11	Osasuna	37	11	11	15	-10	44
12	Cadiz	38	11	11	16	-22	44
13	Valencia	37	10	12	15	-3	42
14	Levante	38	9	14	15	-11	41
15	Alaves	37	9	11	17	-20	38
16	Getafe	37	9	10	18	-15	37
17	Huesca	37	7	12	18	-19	33
18	Elche	37	7	12	18	-23	33
19	Valladolid	37	5	16	16	-22	31
20	Eibar	37	6	12	19	-22	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	19	15	3	1	+30	48
2	Sevilla	18	13	1	4	+15	40
3	Real Madrid	18	12	3	3	+19	39
4	Barcelona	19	11	5	3	+24	38
5	Betis	19	10	5	4	+6	35
6	Sociedad	19	9	6	4	+13	33
7	Valencia	19	8	7	4	+11	31
8	Ath Bilbao	19	8	6	5	+10	30
9	Villarreal	19	8	6	5	+6	30
10	Celta	18	9	3	6	+1	30
11	Granada	18	9	3	6	+0	30
12	Osasuna	18	7	5	6	-1	26
13	Getafe	19	6	6	7	+2	24
14	Levante	19	5	9	5	-3	24
15	Alaves	19	6	6	7	-4	24
16	Huesca	18	5	6	7	-4	21
17	Elche	18	4	8	6	-7	20
18	Cadiz	19	5	5	9	-13	20
19	Valladolid	18	3	7	8	-10	16
20	Eibar	18	2	7	9	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	19	12	6	1	+19	42
2	Barcelona	18	12	2	4	+22	38
3	Ath Madrid	18	10	5	3	+11	35
4	Sevilla	19	10	4	5	+4	34
5	Villarreal	18	7	7	4	+11	28
6	Sociedad	18	7	5	6	+7	26
7	Cadiz	19	6	6	7	-9	24
8	Celta	19	5	8	6	-2	23
9	Betis	18	6	5	7	-7	23
10	Osasuna	19	4	6	9	-9	18
11	Levante	19	4	5	10	-8	17
12	Eibar	19	4	5	10	-14	17
13	Ath Bilbao	18	3	7	8	-4	16
14	Valladolid	19	2	9	8	-12	15
15	Granada	19	4	3	12	-18	15
16	Alaves	18	3	5	10	-16	14
17	Elche	19	3	4	12	-16	13
18	Getafe	18	3	4	11	-17	13
19	Huesca	19	2	6	11	-15	12
20	Valencia	18	2	5	11	-14	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.