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Bundesliga
Referee: R Hartmann
Mainz
S U T T T
4–1
Full-time
Augsburg
U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Augsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,2
2,3
Scored
1,2
0,7
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-1,0
This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 26%
38%
13%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
38%
50%
Both score Ø 32%
25%
38%
Average goals
2,0
2,3
Scored
1,0
0,5
Conceded
1,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

55% Possession 45%
19 Shots 6
8 Shots on target 2
5 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
6 Corners 2
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Mainz 11. · Augsburg 16.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 8 6 1 1 +21 19
2 Dortmund 8 6 0 2 +8 18
3 Leverkusen 8 5 1 2 +9 16
4 Freiburg 8 4 4 0 +6 16
5 Union Berlin 8 4 3 1 +3 15
6 Wolfsburg 8 4 1 3 -1 13
7 FC Koln 8 3 3 2 -1 12
8 RB Leipzig 8 3 2 3 +8 11
9 Hoffenheim 8 3 2 3 +6 11
10 M'gladbach 8 3 2 3 -1 11
11 Mainz 8 3 1 4 +0 10
12 Stuttgart 8 2 3 3 -1 9
13 Hertha 8 3 0 5 -11 9
14 Ein Frankfurt 8 1 5 2 -3 8
15 Bochum 8 2 1 5 -11 7
16 Augsburg 8 1 3 4 -10 6
17 Bielefeld 8 0 5 3 -7 5
18 Greuther Furth 8 0 1 7 -15 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Mainz Augsburg
8′
🟨 Reece Oxford
1–0 K. Onisiwo
S. Widmer
10′
2–0 S. Bell
J. Burkardt
15′
3–0 J. Burkardt
K. Onisiwo
26′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 T. Strobl
↦ R. Gumny
46′
🔁 A. Zeqiri
↦ S. Córdova
63′
🟨 Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
L. Barreiro 🔁
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
64′
66′
🟨 Ruben Vargas
69′
A. Zeqiri 3–1
A. Hahn
Aarón Martin Caricol 🟨
70′
4–1 J. Burkardt
K. Onisiwo
71′
73′
🔁 M. Pedersen
↦ A. Hahn
K. Stöger 🔁
↦ J. Boëtius
76′
M. Ingvartsen 🔁
↦ J. Burkardt
76′
D. Brosinski 🔁
↦ S. Widmer
82′
Á. Szalai 🔁
↦ K. Onisiwo
82′
84′
🔁 N. Sarenren Bazee
↦ D. Caligiuri
85′
🔁 R. Framberger
↦ R. Vargas
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Mainz

3-5-2
27 R. Zentner G
16 S. Bell D
30 S. Widmer M
42 A. Hack D
3 Aarón Martín M
19 M. Niakhate D
5 J. Boëtius M
31 D. Kohr M
7 Lee Jae-Sung M
9 K. Onisiwo F
29 J. Burkardt F
Bench (9)
8 L. Barreiro
22 K. Stöger
11 M. Ingvartsen
18 D. Brosinski
28 Á. Szalai
6 A. Stach
23 Anderson Lucoqui
34 D. Nemeth
1 F. Dahmen

Coach: B. Svensson

Augsburg

3-4-1-2
1 R. Gikiewicz G
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
4 R. Oxford D
2 R. Gumny D
22 Iago M
20 D. Caligiuri F
28 A. Hahn M
8 C. Gruezo M
10 A. Maier M
16 R. Vargas F
9 S. Córdova F
Bench (9)
5 T. Strobl
21 A. Zeqiri
3 M. Pedersen
17 N. Sarenren Bazee
32 R. Framberger
27 A. Finnbogason
40 T. Koubek
11 M. Gregoritsch
26 F. Winther

Coach: M. Weinzierl

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,66
U
3,79
B
5,64
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,08
U2,5
1,77
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Hartmann · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.