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Bundesliga

Referee: T Stieler

Mainz

T S S U T

1–2

Full-time

Union Berlin

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%

11 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

15 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 8. · Union Berlin 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+18	16
2	Dortmund	7	5	0	2	+6	15
3	Freiburg	7	4	3	0	+6	15
4	Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	FC Koln	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	RB Leipzig	7	3	1	3	+8	10
8	Mainz	6	3	1	2	+3	10
9	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	-1	10
10	Union Berlin	6	2	3	1	+0	9
11	Hoffenheim	7	2	2	3	+1	8
12	Stuttgart	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Hertha	7	2	0	5	-12	6
14	Ein Frankfurt	6	0	5	1	-3	5
15	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-10	5
16	Bielefeld	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Bochum	7	1	1	5	-12	4
18	Greuther Furth	7	0	1	6	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	FC Koln	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+13	9
4	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+10	9
5	Union Berlin	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	Freiburg	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	Mainz	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	M'gladbach	3	2	1	0	+3	7
9	Wolfsburg	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Leverkusen	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+3	6
12	Hoffenheim	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Bochum	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Ein Frankfurt	3	0	3	0	+0	3
15	Bielefeld	3	0	3	0	+0	3
16	Hertha	3	1	0	2	-1	3
17	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-6	3
18	Greuther Furth	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Freiburg	4	2	2	0	+2	8
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	+1	4
6	Dortmund	3	1	0	2	-1	3
7	Mainz	3	1	0	2	-1	3
8	M'gladbach	4	1	0	3	-4	3
9	Hertha	4	1	0	3	-11	3
10	FC Koln	3	0	2	1	-1	2
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	0	2	1	-3	2
12	Augsburg	4	0	2	2	-4	2
13	Stuttgart	3	0	2	1	-4	2
14	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	RB Leipzig	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Bielefeld	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Greuther Furth	4	0	0	4	-10	0
18	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.