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Bundesliga

Referee: M Jöllenbeck

Stuttgart

U U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

T S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 30%

17%

42%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

8 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

7 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stuttgart 16. · Mainz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	1	2	+28	28
2	Dortmund	12	9	0	3	+12	27
3	Freiburg	12	6	4	2	+7	22
4	Leverkusen	12	6	3	3	+8	21
5	Union Berlin	12	5	5	2	+2	20
6	Wolfsburg	12	6	2	4	+0	20
7	RB Leipzig	12	5	3	4	+10	18
8	Mainz	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	M'gladbach	12	5	3	4	+3	18
10	Hoffenheim	12	5	2	5	+4	17
11	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	6	3	-2	15
12	FC Koln	12	3	6	3	-3	15
13	Bochum	12	4	1	7	-9	13
14	Hertha	12	4	1	7	-14	13
15	Augsburg	12	3	3	6	-10	12
16	Stuttgart	12	2	4	6	-6	10
17	Bielefeld	12	1	6	5	-9	9
18	Greuther Furth	12	0	1	11	-25	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	7	0	0	+12	21
2	Bayern Munich	6	5	0	1	+17	15
3	RB Leipzig	6	5	0	1	+14	15
4	M'gladbach	6	4	2	0	+8	14
5	Union Berlin	7	4	2	1	+3	14
6	Hoffenheim	6	4	1	1	+9	13
7	Mainz	7	3	3	1	+6	12
8	FC Koln	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+4	11
10	Bochum	5	3	1	1	+4	10
11	Wolfsburg	6	3	1	2	-1	10
12	Augsburg	6	3	1	2	-2	10
13	Leverkusen	6	3	0	3	-1	9
14	Stuttgart	6	2	1	3	+2	7
15	Hertha	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Ein Frankfurt	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Bielefeld	7	0	4	3	-7	4
18	Greuther Furth	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	4	1	1	+11	13
2	Leverkusen	6	3	3	0	+9	12
3	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+3	11
4	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	-1	11
5	Wolfsburg	6	3	1	2	+1	10
6	Dortmund	5	2	0	3	+0	6
7	Union Berlin	5	1	3	1	-1	6
8	Mainz	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Hertha	7	2	0	5	-14	6
10	Bielefeld	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Hoffenheim	6	1	1	4	-5	4
12	M'gladbach	6	1	1	4	-5	4
13	RB Leipzig	6	0	3	3	-4	3
14	FC Koln	6	0	3	3	-8	3
15	Stuttgart	6	0	3	3	-8	3
16	Bochum	7	1	0	6	-13	3
17	Augsburg	6	0	2	4	-8	2
18	Greuther Furth	7	0	0	7	-19	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.