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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Mainz

U U T S T

4–0

Full-time

Hertha

U T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 37%

40%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

53%

60%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

68% Possession 32%

21 Shots 5

10 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 8. · Hertha 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+36	40
2	Dortmund	15	10	1	4	+13	31
3	Leverkusen	15	8	3	4	+13	27
4	Hoffenheim	15	8	2	5	+9	26
5	Freiburg	15	7	4	4	+11	25
6	Union Berlin	15	6	5	4	+1	23
7	RB Leipzig	15	6	3	6	+10	21
8	Mainz	15	6	3	6	+5	21
9	Ein Frankfurt	15	5	6	4	+1	21
10	Bochum	15	6	2	7	-7	20
11	Wolfsburg	15	6	2	7	-7	20
12	FC Koln	15	4	7	4	-2	19
13	M'gladbach	15	5	3	7	-9	18
14	Hertha	15	5	3	7	-12	18
15	Stuttgart	16	4	5	7	-8	17
16	Augsburg	15	4	4	7	-9	16
17	Bielefeld	15	1	7	7	-12	10
18	Greuther Furth	15	1	1	13	-33	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	7	0	1	+19	21
2	Dortmund	8	7	0	1	+11	21
3	RB Leipzig	8	6	0	2	+15	18
4	Union Berlin	8	5	2	1	+4	17
5	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Mainz	8	4	3	1	+9	15
7	FC Koln	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Bochum	7	4	2	1	+5	14
9	M'gladbach	7	4	2	1	+2	14
10	Leverkusen	7	4	0	3	+5	12
11	Freiburg	7	3	2	2	+3	11
12	Hertha	7	3	2	2	+2	11
13	Stuttgart	9	3	2	4	-2	11
14	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	4	1	+3	10
15	Augsburg	7	3	1	3	-3	10
16	Wolfsburg	8	3	1	4	-5	10
17	Bielefeld	8	0	5	3	-7	5
18	Greuther Furth	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	1	1	+17	19
2	Leverkusen	8	4	3	1	+8	15
3	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+8	14
4	Ein Frankfurt	8	3	2	3	-2	11
5	Dortmund	7	3	1	3	+2	10
6	Hoffenheim	8	3	1	4	-1	10
7	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	-2	10
8	Hertha	8	2	1	5	-14	7
9	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	-3	6
10	Mainz	7	2	0	5	-4	6
11	Stuttgart	7	1	3	3	-6	6
12	Augsburg	8	1	3	4	-6	6
13	Bochum	8	2	0	6	-12	6
14	Bielefeld	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	FC Koln	7	0	4	3	-8	4
16	M'gladbach	8	1	1	6	-11	4
17	RB Leipzig	7	0	3	4	-5	3
18	Greuther Furth	8	0	0	8	-25	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.