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Bundesliga
Referee: M Gräfe
RB Leipzig
U S U T S
3–1
Full-time
Mainz
S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
3,2
1,8
Scored
1,8
1,2
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

72% Possession 28%
23 Shots 8
10 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
7 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
5 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

24. May -20 Mainz – RB Leipzig 0–5 2. Nov -19 RB Leipzig – Mainz 8–0 3. May -19 Mainz – RB Leipzig 3–3 16. Dec -18 RB Leipzig – Mainz 4–1 29. Apr -18 Mainz – RB Leipzig 3–0

Match report

RB Leipzig Mainz
1–0 E. Forsberg ⚽
17′
2–0 Y. Poulsen ⚽
Daniel Olmo
21′
30′
🟨 Jean-Philippe Mateta
Half-time 2–1
48′
⚽ J. Mateta 2–1
R. Quaison
3–1 A. Haidara ⚽
E. Forsberg
51′
58′
🟨 Danny Latza
Yussuf Poulsen 🟨
63′
68′
🔁 L. Öztunali
↦ J. Burkardt
68′
🔁 J. Boëtius
↦ R. Quaison
Hwang Hee-Chan 🔁
↦ Daniel Olmo
69′
C. Nkunku 🔁
↦ E. Forsberg
77′
B. Henrichs 🔁
↦ K. Kampl
77′
86′
🔁 N. Tauer
↦ D. Latza
87′
🔁 I. Abass
↦ K. Onisiwo
91′
🔁 P. Nebel
↦ J. Mateta
N. Mukiele 🔁
↦ A. Haidara
92′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

3-4-2-1
1 P. Gulácsi G
23 M. Halstenberg D
16 L. Klostermann D
3 Angeliño M
5 D. Upamecano D
44 K. Kampl M
25 Daniel Olmo F
14 T. Adams M
8 A. Haidara M
10 E. Forsberg F
9 Y. Poulsen F
Bench (9)
11 Hwang Hee-Chan
18 C. Nkunku
39 B. Henrichs
22 N. Mukiele
17 A. Lookman
7 M. Sabitzer
4 V. Orban
20 L. Samardžić
13 P. Tschauner

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Mainz

4-2-3-1
27 R. Zentner G
18 D. Brosinski D
19 M. Niakhate D
4 J. St. Juste D
6 D. Latza M
34 R. Baku D
35 L. Barreiro M
21 K. Onisiwo M
7 R. Quaison M
9 J. Mateta F
29 J. Burkardt M
Bench (9)
8 L. Öztunali
5 J. Boëtius
25 N. Tauer
22 I. Abass
26 P. Nebel
13 D. Lavalée
15 L. Kilian
37 F. Dahmen
23 P. Mwene

Coach: A. Beierlorzer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,37
🔒
U
5,48
🔒
B
7,50
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,37
🔒
U2,5
3,05
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Gräfe · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
19,9 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.