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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Aston Villa

S T T U S

3–3

Full-time

Leeds

T T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,5

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

24%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

62%

57%

Both score Ø 62%

57%

67%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 11

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Leeds 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	24	19	3	2	+43	60
2	Liverpool	22	14	6	2	+39	48
3	Chelsea	24	13	8	3	+30	47
4	West Ham	24	12	4	8	+11	40
5	Man United	23	11	6	6	+6	39
6	Arsenal	21	11	3	7	+8	36
7	Tottenham	21	11	3	7	+1	36
8	Wolves	21	10	4	7	+3	34
9	Brighton	22	6	12	4	+0	30
10	Southampton	23	6	10	7	-7	28
11	Leicester	20	7	5	8	-3	26
12	Aston Villa	21	8	2	11	-4	26
13	Crystal Palace	23	5	10	8	-3	25
14	Brentford	24	6	5	13	-14	23
15	Leeds	21	5	7	9	-16	22
16	Everton	21	5	4	12	-13	19
17	Newcastle	22	3	9	10	-20	18
18	Norwich	23	4	5	14	-32	17
19	Watford	22	4	3	15	-18	15
20	Burnley	20	1	11	8	-11	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	31
2	Liverpool	10	7	3	0	+19	24
3	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
4	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Tottenham	11	7	1	3	+5	22
6	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+5	20
7	Man United	11	6	1	4	+3	19
8	Crystal Palace	12	4	5	3	+6	17
9	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+3	17
10	Southampton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
11	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	+1	14
12	Wolves	10	4	2	4	+0	14
13	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
14	Everton	10	4	1	5	-2	13
15	Brentford	12	4	1	7	-3	13
16	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
17	Newcastle	12	2	6	4	-7	12
18	Burnley	9	1	6	2	+0	9
19	Norwich	12	2	3	7	-13	9
20	Watford	11	2	1	8	-14	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	9	2	1	+15	29
2	Liverpool	12	7	3	2	+20	24
3	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	West Ham	12	6	2	4	+6	20
5	Man United	12	5	5	2	+3	20
6	Wolves	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Brighton	11	3	7	1	+1	16
8	Tottenham	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Arsenal	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Aston Villa	11	4	0	7	-5	12
11	Southampton	12	3	3	6	-11	12
12	Brentford	12	2	4	6	-11	10
13	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Leeds	10	2	3	5	-12	9
15	Watford	11	2	2	7	-4	8
16	Crystal Palace	11	1	5	5	-9	8
17	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
18	Everton	11	1	3	7	-11	6
19	Newcastle	10	1	3	6	-13	6
20	Burnley	11	0	5	6	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.