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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Leeds

T S T T S

0–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 25/23 matches

Win Ø 46%

44%

48%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

64%

57%

Both score Ø 46%

52%

39%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

69% Possession 31%

13 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

14 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 10. · Aston Villa 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	26	19	5	2	+36	62
2	Man United	25	14	7	4	+21	49
3	Leicester	25	15	4	6	+17	49
4	West Ham	26	13	6	7	+9	45
5	Chelsea	25	12	7	6	+16	43
6	Liverpool	25	11	7	7	+11	40
7	Everton	24	12	4	8	+4	40
8	Aston Villa	23	11	3	9	+11	36
9	Tottenham	24	10	6	8	+10	36
10	Leeds	25	11	2	12	+0	35
11	Arsenal	25	10	4	11	+5	34
12	Wolves	25	9	6	10	-6	33
13	Crystal Palace	25	9	5	11	-14	32
14	Southampton	25	8	6	11	-12	30
15	Burnley	25	7	7	11	-12	28
16	Brighton	26	5	11	10	-7	26
17	Newcastle	25	7	4	14	-17	25
18	Fulham	25	4	10	11	-11	22
19	West Brom	26	3	8	15	-35	17
20	Sheffield United	25	3	2	20	-26	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	West Ham	13	7	3	3	+6	24
3	Liverpool	13	7	2	4	+6	23
4	Chelsea	12	6	4	2	+12	22
5	Man United	13	6	3	4	+9	21
6	Leicester	12	6	1	5	+3	19
7	Wolves	13	5	4	4	+1	19
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+4	18
9	Arsenal	13	5	3	5	+2	18
10	Leeds	12	5	2	5	+3	17
11	Southampton	13	5	2	6	+1	17
12	Aston Villa	11	5	1	5	+4	16
13	Burnley	13	4	4	5	-4	16
14	Crystal Palace	12	4	3	5	-7	15
15	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	14
16	Newcastle	12	4	2	6	-6	14
17	Brighton	13	1	7	5	-5	10
18	Fulham	13	2	4	7	-9	10
19	West Brom	13	2	4	7	-23	10
20	Sheffield United	12	2	1	9	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	9	3	1	+17	30
2	Leicester	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Man United	12	8	4	0	+12	28
4	Everton	12	8	2	2	+7	26
5	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+3	21
7	Aston Villa	12	6	2	4	+7	20
8	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+6	18
9	Leeds	13	6	0	7	-3	18
10	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	+5	17
11	Crystal Palace	13	5	2	6	-7	17
12	Arsenal	12	5	1	6	+3	16
13	Brighton	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-7	14
15	Southampton	12	3	4	5	-13	13
16	Fulham	12	2	6	4	-2	12
17	Burnley	12	3	3	6	-8	12
18	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-11	11
19	West Brom	13	1	4	8	-12	7
20	Sheffield United	13	1	1	11	-17	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.