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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Aston Villa

S T S T S

1–3

Full-time

Liverpool

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 15/14 matches

Win Ø 38%

33%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

53%

64%

Both score Ø 56%

47%

64%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 16

6 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

0 Corners 6

3 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Liverpool 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	12	1	1	+22	37
2	Newcastle	16	9	6	1	+21	33
3	Man City	14	10	2	2	+26	32
4	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+10	30
5	Man United	14	8	2	4	+0	26
6	Brighton	15	7	3	5	+6	24
7	Liverpool	14	6	4	4	+11	22
8	Fulham	16	6	4	6	+1	22
9	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+0	21
10	Brentford	16	4	8	4	-2	20
11	Crystal Palace	15	5	4	6	-6	19
12	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-6	18
13	Leicester	16	5	2	9	-3	17
14	Bournemouth	15	4	4	7	-14	16
15	Leeds	14	4	3	7	-4	15
16	West Ham	15	4	2	9	-5	14
17	Everton	16	3	5	8	-7	14
18	Wolves	16	3	4	9	-15	13
19	Nott'm Forest	15	3	4	8	-19	13
20	Southampton	16	3	3	10	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	0	1	+21	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Newcastle	8	5	3	0	+12	18
4	Tottenham	8	6	0	2	+10	18
5	Liverpool	8	5	2	1	+13	17
6	Brentford	8	3	4	1	+6	13
7	Aston Villa	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
9	Crystal Palace	8	4	1	3	-1	13
10	Fulham	8	3	3	2	+1	12
11	Brighton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
12	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
13	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+3	11
14	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+1	11
15	Nott'm Forest	8	3	2	3	-1	11
16	West Ham	8	3	1	4	-1	10
17	Leicester	8	2	2	4	+0	8
18	Everton	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-8	8
20	Southampton	8	1	3	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Newcastle	8	4	3	1	+9	15
3	Brighton	8	4	1	3	+1	13
4	Man United	8	4	1	3	-5	13
5	Tottenham	8	3	3	2	+0	12
6	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
7	Fulham	8	3	1	4	+0	10
8	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	-4	10
9	Leicester	8	3	0	5	-3	9
10	Brentford	8	1	4	3	-8	7
11	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
12	Everton	8	1	3	4	-6	6
13	Southampton	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Liverpool	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Wolves	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Aston Villa	8	1	2	5	-11	5
17	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-15	5
18	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
19	Leeds	7	1	1	5	-7	4
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.