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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Leverkusen

S T T S T

2–3

Full-time

Mainz

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,8

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

40%

35%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

45%

65%

Average goals

3,3

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,39 xG 1,71

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 19

5 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leverkusen 9. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	21	12	7	2	+40	+1.4	43
2	Dortmund	21	14	1	6	+17	+5.6	43
3	Union Berlin	21	13	4	4	+11	+4.1	43
4	Freiburg	21	12	4	5	+3	+0.9	40
5	RB Leipzig	21	11	6	4	+17	+3.6	39
6	Ein Frankfurt	21	11	5	5	+13	-1.1	38
7	Wolfsburg	21	8	6	7	+9	+2.8	30
8	M'gladbach	21	8	5	8	+3	-2.8	29
9	Leverkusen	20	8	3	9	+1	+3.2	27
10	Werder Bremen	21	8	3	10	-10	-6.4	27
11	FC Koln	21	6	8	7	-2	+0.5	26
12	Mainz	20	7	5	8	-2	+0.9	26
13	Augsburg	21	7	3	11	-10	-0.5	24
14	Stuttgart	21	4	7	10	-10	+0.7	19
15	Hoffenheim	21	5	4	12	-11	-3.9	19
16	Bochum	21	6	1	14	-27	-3.7	19
17	Hertha	21	4	5	12	-15	-4.5	17
18	Schalke 04	21	2	7	12	-27	-0.9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	8	1	1	+18	+4.3	25
2	Union Berlin	10	7	3	0	+11	+2.1	24
3	RB Leipzig	10	7	2	1	+14	-1.6	23
4	Freiburg	10	7	2	1	+10	+3.1	23
5	Bayern Munich	10	6	4	0	+23	+4.9	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	1	3	+13	+2.3	22
7	M'gladbach	11	7	1	3	+10	+0.4	22
8	FC Koln	10	5	3	2	+11	+3.3	18
9	Bochum	10	5	1	4	-2	+1.1	16
10	Wolfsburg	10	4	3	3	+6	+1.4	15
11	Stuttgart	11	4	3	4	+2	+2.5	15
12	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+6	+1.8	14
13	Augsburg	11	4	2	5	-5	+1.8	14
14	Mainz	10	3	4	3	+3	+1.1	13
15	Werder Bremen	11	4	1	6	-1	-0.9	13
16	Hertha	11	3	4	4	-3	-1.1	13
17	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-6	+0.7	11
18	Schalke 04	11	2	3	6	-15	-1.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	6	3	2	+17	-3.5	21
2	Union Berlin	11	6	1	4	+0	+2.0	19
3	Dortmund	11	6	0	5	-1	+1.3	18
4	Freiburg	11	5	2	4	-7	-2.2	17
5	RB Leipzig	11	4	4	3	+3	+5.2	16
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	4	2	+0	-3.5	16
7	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.4	15
8	Werder Bremen	10	4	2	4	-9	-5.5	14
9	Leverkusen	10	4	1	5	-5	+1.4	13
10	Mainz	10	4	1	5	-5	-0.2	13
11	Augsburg	10	3	1	6	-5	-2.3	10
12	Hoffenheim	10	2	2	6	-5	-4.6	8
13	FC Koln	11	1	5	5	-13	-2.7	8
14	M'gladbach	10	1	4	5	-7	-3.2	7
15	Stuttgart	10	0	4	6	-12	-1.8	4
16	Hertha	10	1	1	8	-12	-3.4	4
17	Schalke 04	10	0	4	6	-12	+0.2	4
18	Bochum	11	1	0	10	-25	-4.8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.