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Bundesliga

Referee: B Cortus

Mainz

T S T S U

3–2

Full-time

Leverkusen

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,8

Scored

1,0

3,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 48%

41%

55%

Points per game

1,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

50%

77%

Both score Ø 64%

50%

77%

Average goals

2,5

4,3

Scored

1,4

2,6

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

17 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 9. · Leverkusen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	22	17	1	4	+45	52
2	Dortmund	22	15	1	6	+21	46
3	Leverkusen	22	12	5	5	+22	41
4	RB Leipzig	22	10	4	8	+16	34
5	Hoffenheim	22	10	4	8	+9	34
6	Freiburg	22	9	7	6	+9	34
7	Union Berlin	22	9	7	6	-1	34
8	FC Koln	22	8	8	6	-3	32
9	Mainz	22	9	4	9	+7	31
10	Ein Frankfurt	22	8	7	7	-1	31
11	Bochum	22	8	4	10	-8	28
12	Wolfsburg	22	8	3	11	-10	27
13	M'gladbach	22	7	5	10	-10	26
14	Hertha	22	6	5	11	-21	23
15	Bielefeld	22	4	10	8	-8	22
16	Augsburg	22	5	7	10	-14	22
17	Stuttgart	22	4	6	12	-16	18
18	Greuther Furth	22	3	4	15	-37	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	0	2	+23	27
2	RB Leipzig	12	9	0	3	+20	27
3	Dortmund	11	9	0	2	+15	27
4	Mainz	11	7	3	1	+16	24
5	Hoffenheim	11	7	2	2	+13	23
6	Bochum	11	6	3	2	+7	21
7	FC Koln	11	6	3	2	+4	21
8	Union Berlin	11	6	3	2	+2	21
9	Leverkusen	11	6	2	3	+11	20
10	Freiburg	11	5	4	2	+6	19
11	M'gladbach	11	5	2	4	+0	17
12	Augsburg	10	4	3	3	-1	15
13	Hertha	11	4	3	4	-2	15
14	Wolfsburg	11	4	2	5	-3	14
15	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	4	4	-1	13
16	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	-6	12
17	Stuttgart	11	3	2	6	-5	11
18	Bielefeld	11	1	7	3	-5	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	1	2	+22	25
2	Leverkusen	11	6	3	2	+11	21
3	Dortmund	11	6	1	4	+6	19
4	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+0	18
5	Freiburg	11	4	3	4	+3	15
6	Union Berlin	11	3	4	4	-3	13
7	Wolfsburg	11	4	1	6	-7	13
8	Bielefeld	11	3	3	5	-3	12
9	Hoffenheim	11	3	2	6	-4	11
10	FC Koln	11	2	5	4	-7	11
11	M'gladbach	11	2	3	6	-10	9
12	Hertha	11	2	2	7	-19	8
13	RB Leipzig	10	1	4	5	-4	7
14	Mainz	11	2	1	8	-9	7
15	Stuttgart	11	1	4	6	-11	7
16	Augsburg	12	1	4	7	-13	7
17	Bochum	11	2	1	8	-15	7
18	Greuther Furth	11	0	1	10	-31	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.