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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Freiburg

T U U S T

2–2

Full-time

Bayern Munich

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 55%

35%

74%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

65%

87%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

3,1

3,9

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,52 xG 1,81

38% Possession 62%

17 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 9. · Bayern Munich 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	23	19	4	0	+43	+26.1	61
2	Bayern Munich	23	17	2	4	+37	+41.1	53
3	Stuttgart	23	15	2	6	+23	+26.0	47
4	Dortmund	23	11	8	4	+16	+9.5	41
5	RB Leipzig	23	12	4	7	+19	+15.7	40
6	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	10	5	+6	-4.7	34
7	Hoffenheim	23	8	6	9	-2	-2.1	30
8	Werder Bremen	23	8	6	9	-3	-6.4	30
9	Freiburg	23	8	5	10	-12	-0.3	29
10	Heidenheim	23	7	7	9	-7	-19.1	28
11	Augsburg	23	6	8	9	-8	-6.1	26
12	M'gladbach	23	6	7	10	-4	-4.9	25
13	Wolfsburg	23	6	7	10	-8	-2.7	25
14	Union Berlin	23	7	4	12	-14	-7.6	25
15	Bochum	23	5	10	8	-18	-16.1	25
16	FC Koln	23	3	8	12	-21	-24.0	17
17	Mainz	23	2	9	12	-19	-0.8	15
18	Darmstadt	23	2	7	14	-28	-23.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	12	10	2	0	+27	+20.2	32
2	Bayern Munich	12	10	1	1	+31	+25.2	31
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+24	+22.3	29
4	RB Leipzig	12	8	2	2	+20	+14.2	26
5	Dortmund	12	7	2	3	+6	+9.3	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	5	1	+8	+3.3	20
7	Freiburg	11	5	4	2	+3	+8.5	19
8	M'gladbach	12	5	3	4	+5	+4.6	18
9	Bochum	11	4	6	1	+5	+2.7	18
10	Werder Bremen	12	5	3	4	+2	+1.0	18
11	Heidenheim	11	5	3	3	+2	-5.4	18
12	Augsburg	12	4	5	3	+1	-1.0	17
13	Union Berlin	11	5	2	4	-2	-0.6	17
14	Wolfsburg	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.9	16
15	Hoffenheim	11	2	4	5	-3	+4.0	10
16	FC Koln	11	2	3	6	-7	-8.6	9
17	Mainz	11	2	3	6	-7	+3.6	9
18	Darmstadt	12	1	3	8	-12	-6.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	11	9	2	0	+16	+5.9	29
2	Bayern Munich	11	7	1	3	+6	+15.9	22
3	Hoffenheim	12	6	2	4	+1	-6.2	20
4	Dortmund	11	4	6	1	+10	+0.2	18
5	Stuttgart	11	6	0	5	-1	+3.7	18
6	RB Leipzig	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.5	14
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-2	-8.0	14
8	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.4	12
9	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-9	-13.7	10
10	Freiburg	12	3	1	8	-15	-8.8	10
11	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-9	-5.1	9
12	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-11	-1.7	9
13	Union Berlin	12	2	2	8	-12	-6.9	8
14	FC Koln	12	1	5	6	-14	-15.4	8
15	M'gladbach	11	1	4	6	-9	-9.5	7
16	Darmstadt	11	1	4	6	-16	-17.3	7
17	Bochum	12	1	4	7	-23	-18.8	7
18	Mainz	12	0	6	6	-12	-4.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.