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Bundesliga

Referee: R Schröder

Bayern Munich

S S S U S

3–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,8

3,5

Scored

3,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,8

Scored

3,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,43 xG 0,05

70% Possession 30%

21 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

3 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 5. · Freiburg 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	7	6	1	0	+17	+9.4	19
2	Stuttgart	7	6	0	1	+14	+8.5	18
3	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+8	+4.7	17
4	Hoffenheim	7	5	0	2	+5	+1.4	15
5	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+14	+13.1	14
6	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+10	+1.6	14
7	Wolfsburg	7	4	0	3	+1	+0.7	12
8	Freiburg	6	3	1	2	-3	+0.6	10
9	Ein Frankfurt	6	1	4	1	-1	-2.0	7
10	Heidenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-7.9	7
11	Darmstadt	7	2	1	4	-7	-6.4	7
12	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-3	+1.6	6
13	Union Berlin	7	2	0	5	-3	-0.3	6
14	Werder Bremen	7	2	0	5	-5	-1.8	6
15	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-0.8	5
16	Bochum	7	0	4	3	-14	-10.2	4
17	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.0	2
18	FC Koln	7	0	1	6	-10	-7.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	4	4	0	0	+14	+6.8	12
2	Leverkusen	4	4	0	0	+11	+7.3	12
3	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+4	+3.4	10
4	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.1	9
5	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+7	+0.5	8
6	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+9	+7.2	7
7	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.6	6
8	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
9	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.5	5
11	Augsburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.0	5
12	Darmstadt	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.2	4
13	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.3	3
14	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
15	Bochum	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
16	M'gladbach	4	0	1	3	-5	-1.6	1
17	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.1	1
18	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.8	12
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.1	7
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+5	+6.0	7
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.1	6
6	Stuttgart	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.7	6
7	M'gladbach	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.2	5
8	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-4	+0.4	4
9	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-1	+1.5	3
10	Wolfsburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-1.4	3
11	Darmstadt	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.1	3
12	Ein Frankfurt	3	0	2	1	-2	-3.5	2
13	Bochum	4	0	2	2	-12	-10.1	2
14	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.3	1
15	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-5	-3.9	1
16	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-8	-3.9	1
17	Werder Bremen	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.5	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.