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Bundesliga

Referee: H Osmers

Dortmund

U S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

50%

40%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

65%

55%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,93 xG 0,26

66% Possession 34%

17 Shots 6

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Freiburg 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	20	16	4	0	+38	+23.8	52
2	Bayern Munich	20	16	2	2	+40	+39.4	50
3	Stuttgart	20	13	1	6	+20	+23.7	40
4	Dortmund	20	10	7	3	+14	+7.5	37
5	RB Leipzig	20	11	3	6	+18	+14.8	36
6	Ein Frankfurt	20	8	7	5	+6	-4.4	31
7	Freiburg	20	8	4	8	-8	+0.4	28
8	Hoffenheim	20	7	5	8	-2	-2.1	26
9	Werder Bremen	20	7	5	8	-3	-7.8	26
10	Heidenheim	20	6	6	8	-7	-17.6	24
11	Wolfsburg	20	6	5	9	-7	-4.1	23
12	Augsburg	20	5	7	8	-8	-4.5	22
13	M'gladbach	20	5	6	9	-5	-6.6	21
14	Bochum	20	4	9	7	-16	-11.4	21
15	Union Berlin	20	5	3	12	-16	-7.2	18
16	FC Koln	20	3	6	11	-20	-20.3	15
17	Mainz	20	1	9	10	-17	-1.6	12
18	Darmstadt	20	2	5	13	-27	-22.2	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	1	1	+30	+24.5	28
2	Leverkusen	10	8	2	0	+23	+19.4	26
3	Stuttgart	10	8	1	1	+22	+20.2	25
4	RB Leipzig	11	7	2	2	+18	+13.2	23
5	Dortmund	10	6	2	2	+4	+6.8	20
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	3	1	+8	+2.4	18
7	Heidenheim	10	5	3	2	+3	-3.9	18
8	Freiburg	10	5	3	2	+3	+7.2	18
9	Werder Bremen	10	5	2	3	+3	+0.5	17
10	Bochum	10	3	6	1	+4	+4.5	15
11	Wolfsburg	10	4	3	3	+3	-1.4	15
12	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+2	+2.0	14
13	Augsburg	10	3	4	3	+0	-0.7	13
14	Union Berlin	9	4	1	4	-3	+0.2	13
15	Hoffenheim	9	2	3	4	-2	+3.3	9
16	FC Koln	10	2	3	5	-6	-7.6	9
17	Mainz	10	1	3	6	-8	+2.3	6
18	Darmstadt	11	1	3	7	-11	-5.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	10	8	2	0	+15	+4.4	26
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	1	1	+10	+14.9	22
3	Dortmund	10	4	5	1	+10	+0.7	17
4	Hoffenheim	11	5	2	4	+0	-5.4	17
5	Stuttgart	10	5	0	5	-2	+3.5	15
6	RB Leipzig	9	4	1	4	+0	+1.6	13
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	3	4	4	-2	-6.8	13
8	Freiburg	10	3	1	6	-11	-6.8	10
9	Werder Bremen	10	2	3	5	-6	-8.3	9
10	Augsburg	10	2	3	5	-8	-3.9	9
11	Wolfsburg	10	2	2	6	-10	-2.7	8
12	M'gladbach	10	1	4	5	-7	-8.5	7
13	Mainz	10	0	6	4	-9	-3.9	6
14	Heidenheim	10	1	3	6	-10	-13.7	6
15	FC Koln	10	1	3	6	-14	-12.7	6
16	Bochum	10	1	3	6	-20	-15.8	6
17	Union Berlin	11	1	2	8	-13	-7.3	5
18	Darmstadt	9	1	2	6	-16	-16.3	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.