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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Lazio

S S T S T

0–1

Full-time

Milan

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lazio Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 54%

46%

62%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

42%

62%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,9

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,33 xG 1,00

38% Possession 62%

11 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 19

5 Yellow cards 6

3 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lazio 9. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	22	3	1	+55	+36.6	69
2	Juventus	26	17	6	3	+22	+22.7	57
3	Milan	26	16	5	5	+18	+8.9	53
4	Bologna	26	13	9	4	+16	+7.1	48
5	Atalanta	26	14	4	8	+20	+11.5	46
6	Roma	26	13	5	8	+16	+11.9	44
7	Fiorentina	26	12	5	9	+9	+1.0	41
8	Napoli	26	11	7	8	+10	+16.9	40
9	Lazio	26	12	4	10	+4	-0.1	40
10	Torino	26	9	9	8	+0	+2.9	36
11	Monza	26	9	9	8	-3	-8.7	36
12	Genoa	26	8	9	9	-3	-4.2	33
13	Empoli	26	6	7	13	-18	-8.4	25
14	Lecce	26	5	9	12	-19	-13.2	24
15	Udinese	26	3	14	9	-15	-7.2	23
16	Frosinone	26	6	5	15	-21	-12.9	23
17	Verona	26	4	8	14	-13	-9.4	20
18	Sassuolo	26	5	5	16	-22	-14.1	20
19	Cagliari	26	4	8	14	-23	-10.9	20
20	Salernitana	26	2	7	17	-33	-30.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	14	11	2	1	+19	+6.5	35
2	Inter	13	11	1	1	+28	+22.6	34
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Roma	14	9	3	2	+18	+10.1	30
5	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+12	+13.6	30
6	Milan	13	9	2	2	+14	+6.7	29
7	Fiorentina	13	8	2	3	+11	+6.3	26
8	Torino	13	6	5	2	+6	+7.6	23
9	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+4	+4.9	21
10	Monza	13	5	5	3	+3	-3.1	20
11	Genoa	13	5	5	3	+1	-1.9	20
12	Frosinone	13	6	2	5	+0	-1.0	20
13	Lecce	13	5	4	4	-6	-2.8	19
14	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
15	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	-6	+2.5	16
16	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.0	14
17	Sassuolo	13	3	3	7	-8	-4.5	12
18	Udinese	13	1	8	4	-4	+1.9	11
19	Empoli	13	2	4	7	-9	-3.6	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	2	0	+27	+14.0	35
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	13	7	3	3	+4	+2.2	24
4	Napoli	14	6	4	4	+9	+7.6	22
5	Lazio	14	6	1	7	+0	-5.0	19
6	Monza	13	4	4	5	-6	-5.6	16
7	Atalanta	13	4	3	6	-2	-0.6	15
8	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	-2	-5.3	15
9	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	-4.8	15
10	Roma	12	4	2	6	-2	+1.8	14
11	Bologna	12	2	7	3	-3	+0.6	13
12	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
13	Torino	13	3	4	6	-6	-4.7	13
14	Udinese	13	2	6	5	-11	-9.1	12
15	Sassuolo	13	2	2	9	-14	-9.6	8
16	Verona	14	1	3	10	-11	-7.4	6
17	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-17	-18.9	6
18	Lecce	13	0	5	8	-13	-10.4	5
19	Cagliari	13	0	4	9	-17	-13.4	4
20	Frosinone	13	0	3	10	-21	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.