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Bundesliga
Referee: T Stieler
Bayern Munich
S S T S S
3–1
Full-time
M'gladbach
U T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 53%
79%
26%
Points per game
2,5
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 87%
84%
89%
Both score Ø 63%
47%
79%
Average goals
3,9
3,8
Scored
2,9
1,8
Conceded
0,9
2,0
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,00 xG 0,74
56% Possession 44%
21 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bayern Munich 2. · M'gladbach 12.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leverkusen 19 15 4 0 +36 +22.5 49
2 Bayern Munich 19 15 2 2 +38 +38.1 47
3 Stuttgart 19 12 1 6 +18 +22.6 37
4 Dortmund 20 10 7 3 +14 +7.5 37
5 RB Leipzig 19 10 3 6 +16 +14.1 33
6 Ein Frankfurt 19 8 7 4 +8 -3.6 31
7 Freiburg 19 8 4 7 -6 +1.5 28
8 Hoffenheim 19 7 4 8 -2 -2.2 25
9 Heidenheim 20 6 6 8 -7 -17.6 24
10 Werder Bremen 19 6 5 8 -4 -7.4 23
11 Wolfsburg 19 6 4 9 -7 -3.9 22
12 M'gladbach 19 5 6 8 -3 -5.3 21
13 Augsburg 19 5 6 8 -8 -5.3 21
14 Bochum 19 4 8 7 -16 -10.6 20
15 Union Berlin 18 5 2 11 -14 -6.3 17
16 FC Koln 19 2 6 11 -22 -21.1 12
17 Mainz 18 1 8 9 -16 -2.1 11
18 Darmstadt 19 2 5 12 -25 -20.9 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bayern Munich M'gladbach
30′
🟨 Florian Neuhaus
35′
N. Elvedi 0–1
J. Siebatcheu
1–1 A. Pavlović
T. Müller
45′
Half-time 1–1
S. Boey 🔁
↦ N. Mazraoui
62′
62′
🔁 M. Koné
↦ F. Neuhaus
62′
🔁 S. Lainer
↦ L. Netz
62′
🔁 R. Hack
↦ N. Ngoumou
2–1 H. Kane
70′
M. Tel 🔁
↦ T. Müller
72′
85′
🔁 S. Fukuda
↦ R. Reitz
Raphaël Guerreiro 🔁
↦ A. Davies
86′
3–1 M. de Ligt
L. Sané
86′
89′
🔁 G. Ranos
↦ F. Honorat
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-2-3-1
1 M. Neuer G
40 N. Mazraoui D
4 M. de Ligt D
15 E. Dier D
19 A. Davies D
45 A. Pavlović M
8 L. Goretzka M
10 L. Sané M
25 T. Müller M
42 J. Musiala M
9 H. Kane F
Bench (9)
23 S. Boey
39 M. Tel
22 Raphaël Guerreiro
26 S. Ulreich
17 Bryan Zaragoza
13 E. Choupo-Moting
44 Adam Aznou
34 L. Zvonarek
41 F. Krätzig

Coach: T. Tuchel

M'gladbach

4-1-4-1
33 M. Nicolas G
29 J. Scally D
5 M. Friedrich D
30 N. Elvedi D
20 L. Netz D
8 J. Weigl M
9 F. Honorat M
27 R. Reitz M
10 F. Neuhaus M
19 N. Ngoumou M
13 J. Siebatcheu F
Bench (9)
17 M. Koné
18 S. Lainer
25 R. Hack
49 S. Fukuda
28 G. Ranos
41 J. Olschowsky
24 T. Jantschke
2 F. Chiarodia
23 C. Kramer

Coach: G. Seoane

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,15
U
8,90
B
16,45
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,24
U2,5
4,07
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.