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Bundesliga

Referee: Christian Dingert

Hamburg

S S T S U

0–2

Full-time

St Pauli

T U T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,7

2,2

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

0,0

6,0

Scored

0,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,35 xG 1,44

48% Possession 52%

5 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 11. · St Pauli 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+6	+1.2	3
2	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.3	3
4	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
5	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
6	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
7	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Hamburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
13	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
14	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
15	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.3	0
16	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
17	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
18	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-6	-1.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+6	+1.2	3
2	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
4	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
5	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
6	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
7	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
8	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.3	0
9	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.3	3
2	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
3	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
4	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
5	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
6	Hamburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
7	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
8	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
9	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-6	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.