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Bundesliga
Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck
St Pauli
U T U T U
3–3
Full-time
Dortmund
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Pauli Dortmund
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,7
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
17%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,5
4,0
Scored
0,5
3,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,29 xG 1,56
51% Possession 49%
11 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 0
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 2
4 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

1. Mar -25 St Pauli – Dortmund 0–2 18. Oct -24 Dortmund – St Pauli 2–1

Match report

St Pauli Dortmund
Adam Dźwigała 🟨
22′
26′
🟨 Ramy Bensebaini
34′
⚽ S. Guirassy 0–1
M. Sabitzer
Eric Smith 🟨
37′
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 F. Nmecha
↦ J. Bellingham
46′
🔁 J. Brandt
↦ K. Adeyemi
1–1 A. Hountondji ⚽
D. Sinani
50′
65′
🟨 Yan Couto
67′
⚽ W. Anton 1–2
F. Nmecha
A. Ceesay 🔁
↦ A. Hountondji
68′
74′
⚽ J. Brandt 1–3
P. Gross
M. Saliakas 🔁
↦ A. Pyrka
77′
C. Metcalfe 🔁
↦ A. Dzwigala
77′
Abdoulie Ceesay ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
84′
85′
🟥 Filippo Mané
2–3 D. Sinani ⚽
86′
O. Afolayan 🔁
↦ J. Sands
87′
87′
🔁 S. Ozcan
↦ P. Gross
3–3 E. Smith ⚽
M. Saliakas
89′
93′
🟨 Marcel Sabitzer
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

St Pauli

3-4-1-2
22 N. Vasilj G
5 H. Wahl D
8 E. Smith D
25 A. Dzwigala D
11 A. Pyrka M
6 J. Sands M
16 J. Fujita M
23 L. Oppie M
10 D. Sinani F
27 A. Hountondji F
28 M. Pereira Lage F
Bench (9)
1 B. A. Voll
34 J. Robatsch
21 L. Ritzka
2 M. Saliakas
24 C. Metcalfe
20 E. Ahlstrand
18 S. Banks
17 O. Afolayan
9 A. Ceesay

Coach: Alexander Blessin

Dortmund

3-4-1-2
1 G. Kobel G
39 F. Mane D
3 W. Anton D
5 R. Bensebaini D
2 Y. Couto M
13 P. Gross M
20 M. Sabitzer M
24 D. Svensson M
7 J. Bellingham F
9 S. Guirassy F
27 K. Adeyemi F
Bench (9)
33 A. Meyer
26 J. Ryerson
42 A. Kabar
49 Y. Luhrs
6 S. Ozcan
8 F. Nmecha
10 J. Brandt
14 M. Beier
37 C. Campbell

Coach: Niko Kovac

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,52
🔒
U ✓
3,85
🔒
B
1,71
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,75
🔒
U2,5
2,02
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Matthias Jollenbeck · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,06 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.