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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Southampton

T T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Arsenal

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 31/30 matches

Win Ø 42%

26%

57%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

55%

53%

Both score Ø 49%

61%

37%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

24% Possession 76%

9 Shots 23

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 14. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	31	23	5	3	+52	74
2	Liverpool	31	22	7	2	+57	73
3	Chelsea	30	18	8	4	+41	62
4	Tottenham	32	18	3	11	+18	57
5	Arsenal	30	17	3	10	+9	54
6	West Ham	32	15	6	11	+9	51
7	Man United	31	14	9	8	+7	51
8	Wolves	32	15	4	13	+5	49
9	Leicester	29	11	7	11	-3	40
10	Brighton	32	9	13	10	-8	40
11	Crystal Palace	31	8	13	10	+3	37
12	Aston Villa	31	11	3	17	-4	36
13	Brentford	32	10	6	16	-9	36
14	Southampton	31	8	12	11	-15	36
15	Newcastle	31	8	10	13	-20	34
16	Leeds	32	8	9	15	-30	33
17	Everton	30	8	4	18	-19	28
18	Burnley	30	4	12	14	-19	24
19	Watford	31	6	4	21	-31	22
20	Norwich	31	5	6	20	-43	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+32	39
2	Man City	15	11	2	2	+30	35
3	Arsenal	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Tottenham	16	10	1	5	+13	31
5	West Ham	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Man United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	Leicester	15	8	3	4	+6	27
8	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+15	26
9	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
10	Crystal Palace	16	5	7	4	+8	22
11	Everton	15	7	1	7	+1	22
12	Southampton	16	5	7	4	+0	22
13	Newcastle	15	5	6	4	-4	21
14	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-1	20
15	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-1	18
16	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
17	Burnley	15	3	6	6	-7	15
18	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
19	Norwich	16	3	3	10	-19	12
20	Watford	15	2	1	12	-23	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+26	36
3	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+25	34
4	Tottenham	16	8	2	6	+5	26
5	Wolves	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Brighton	16	6	7	3	+2	25
7	Man United	15	6	5	4	+1	23
8	Arsenal	14	7	1	6	-2	22
9	West Ham	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
11	Brentford	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-18	16
13	Crystal Palace	15	3	6	6	-5	15
14	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Southampton	15	3	5	7	-15	14
16	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	13
17	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-16	13
18	Burnley	15	1	6	8	-12	9
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-24	9
20	Everton	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.