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La Liga

Referee: Valentín Pizarro

Celta

S U S U U

0–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 30%

19%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

33%

74%

Both score Ø 61%

48%

74%

Average goals

2,1

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,6

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

4 Shots 15

0 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 17. · Villarreal 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	27	18	4	5	+32	58
2	Real Madrid	27	16	8	3	+30	56
3	Sevilla	28	14	8	6	+12	50
4	Sociedad	27	14	4	9	+12	46
5	Getafe	28	13	7	8	+11	46
6	Ath Madrid	27	11	12	4	+10	45
7	Valencia	28	11	10	7	-1	43
8	Granada	28	12	5	11	+2	41
9	Villarreal	27	11	5	11	+6	38
10	Ath Bilbao	27	9	10	8	+6	37
11	Osasuna	27	8	10	9	-4	34
12	Levante	28	10	4	14	-8	34
13	Betis	28	8	9	11	-7	33
14	Alaves	28	8	8	12	-10	32
15	Valladolid	27	6	11	10	-10	29
16	Eibar	27	7	6	14	-14	27
17	Celta	27	5	11	11	-12	26
18	Mallorca	27	7	4	16	-16	25
19	Leganes	27	5	8	14	-18	23
20	Espanol	28	5	8	15	-21	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	13	1	0	+33	40
2	Real Madrid	13	9	4	0	+18	31
3	Valencia	15	8	7	0	+11	31
4	Ath Madrid	14	8	5	1	+11	29
5	Granada	14	9	2	3	+9	29
6	Sociedad	13	8	2	3	+15	26
7	Sevilla	14	7	5	2	+8	26
8	Getafe	14	7	4	3	+8	25
9	Ath Bilbao	13	7	3	3	+8	24
10	Levante	13	7	3	3	+7	24
11	Betis	14	7	3	4	+6	24
12	Alaves	14	6	5	3	+7	23
13	Villarreal	13	6	4	3	+9	22
14	Mallorca	14	6	2	6	+2	20
15	Osasuna	14	5	5	4	+0	20
16	Eibar	14	6	1	7	-1	19
17	Celta	13	4	5	4	-2	17
18	Valladolid	13	3	7	3	+1	16
19	Leganes	14	4	3	7	-6	15
20	Espanol	14	2	5	7	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	14	7	4	3	+12	25
2	Sevilla	14	7	3	4	+4	24
3	Getafe	14	6	3	5	+3	21
4	Sociedad	14	6	2	6	-3	20
5	Barcelona	13	5	3	5	-1	18
6	Ath Madrid	13	3	7	3	-1	16
7	Villarreal	14	5	1	8	-3	16
8	Osasuna	13	3	5	5	-4	14
9	Ath Bilbao	14	2	7	5	-2	13
10	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-11	13
11	Granada	14	3	3	8	-7	12
12	Espanol	14	3	3	8	-11	12
13	Valencia	13	3	3	7	-12	12
14	Levante	15	3	1	11	-15	10
15	Celta	14	1	6	7	-10	9
16	Betis	14	1	6	7	-13	9
17	Alaves	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Leganes	13	1	5	7	-12	8
19	Eibar	13	1	5	7	-13	8
20	Mallorca	13	1	2	10	-18	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.