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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Villarreal

T S S S S

2–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Villarreal Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,0

This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

37%

47%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

47%

63%

Both score Ø 53%

47%

58%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%

13 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Villarreal 8. · Ath Madrid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	21	15	4	2	+27	49
2	Sevilla	20	13	5	2	+18	44
3	Betis	20	10	4	6	+9	34
4	Sociedad	20	9	6	5	+1	33
5	Ath Madrid	19	9	5	5	+9	32
6	Barcelona	20	8	8	4	+8	32
7	Vallecano	20	9	4	7	+6	31
8	Villarreal	19	7	7	5	+11	28
9	Ath Bilbao	21	6	10	5	+3	28
10	Valencia	20	7	7	6	+0	28
11	Espanol	19	7	5	7	+0	26
12	Osasuna	20	6	7	7	-5	25
13	Granada	20	5	9	6	-3	24
14	Celta	20	6	5	9	-1	23
15	Mallorca	20	4	8	8	-13	20
16	Getafe	20	4	6	10	-8	18
17	Alaves	20	4	5	11	-14	17
18	Elche	19	3	7	9	-9	16
19	Cadiz	20	2	8	10	-19	14
20	Levante	20	1	8	11	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	10	8	2	0	+16	26
2	Sevilla	10	8	2	0	+14	26
3	Real Madrid	10	7	3	0	+16	24
4	Villarreal	10	6	2	2	+13	20
5	Barcelona	10	6	2	2	+8	20
6	Espanol	9	6	2	1	+7	20
7	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	18
8	Sociedad	10	5	3	2	+1	18
9	Betis	10	5	2	3	+7	17
10	Valencia	10	4	4	2	+5	16
11	Granada	10	4	3	3	+1	15
12	Ath Bilbao	10	4	2	4	+1	14
13	Getafe	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Mallorca	10	2	6	2	+0	12
15	Alaves	11	3	3	5	-5	12
16	Elche	9	2	5	2	-1	11
17	Osasuna	11	2	5	4	-6	11
18	Levante	10	1	6	3	-4	9
19	Celta	10	2	2	6	-4	8
20	Cadiz	10	0	5	5	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	11	8	1	2	+11	25
2	Sevilla	10	5	3	2	+4	18
3	Betis	10	5	2	3	+2	17
4	Celta	10	4	3	3	+3	15
5	Sociedad	10	4	3	3	+0	15
6	Ath Bilbao	11	2	8	1	+2	14
7	Ath Madrid	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Osasuna	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Barcelona	10	2	6	2	+0	12
10	Valencia	10	3	3	4	-5	12
11	Granada	10	1	6	3	-4	9
12	Cadiz	10	2	3	5	-10	9
13	Villarreal	9	1	5	3	-2	8
14	Mallorca	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Espanol	10	1	3	6	-7	6
16	Elche	10	1	2	7	-8	5
17	Alaves	9	1	2	6	-9	5
18	Vallecano	10	1	2	7	-10	5
19	Getafe	10	0	4	6	-9	4
20	Levante	10	0	2	8	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.