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Serie A
Referee: M Fabbri
Udinese
U U T U S
2–6
Full-time
Atalanta
S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,0
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,7
This season — Serie A · 18/19 matches
Win Ø 40%
22%
58%
Points per game
1,1
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
50%
74%
Both score Ø 65%
56%
74%
Average goals
3,0
3,3
Scored
1,4
2,0
Conceded
1,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,7
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

40% Possession 60%
8 Shots 21
4 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 11
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 5
2 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Udinese 14. · Atalanta 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Milan 21 15 3 3 +23 48
2 Inter 19 14 4 1 +34 46
3 Napoli 20 12 4 4 +21 40
4 Atalanta 19 11 5 3 +14 38
5 Juventus 20 10 5 5 +10 35
6 Fiorentina 19 10 2 7 +9 32
7 Roma 20 10 2 8 +8 32
8 Lazio 20 9 5 6 +5 32
9 Sassuolo 21 7 7 7 +3 28
10 Empoli 21 8 4 9 -8 28
11 Verona 20 7 6 7 +3 27
12 Bologna 19 8 3 8 -4 27
13 Torino 19 7 4 8 +4 25
14 Udinese 18 4 8 6 -2 20
15 Sampdoria 20 5 5 10 -9 20
16 Venezia 20 4 5 11 -19 17
17 Spezia 20 4 4 12 -21 16
18 Cagliari 20 2 7 11 -22 13
19 Genoa 20 1 9 10 -18 12
20 Salernitana 18 2 2 14 -31 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Udinese Atalanta
17′
M. Pašalić 0–1
22′
L. Muriel 0–2
R. Malinovskyi
Rodrigo Becão 🟨
30′
43′
R. Malinovskyi 0–3
Gerard Deulofeu 🟨
44′
45′
🟨 Marten de Roon
Half-time 0–3
46′
🔁 M. Pessina
↦ M. de Roon
0–4 B. Djimsiti
own goal
59′
B. Soppy 🔁
↦ D. Udogie
66′
73′
🔁 H. Hateboer
↦ G. Pezzella
73′
🔁 A. Miranchuk
↦ M. Pašalić
I. Success 🔁
↦ I. Pussetto
74′
76′
L. Muriel 0–5
A. Miranchuk
77′
🟨 Berat Djimsiti
79′
🔁 J. Iličić
↦ L. Muriel
1–5 Beto
I. Success
88′
89′
J. Mæhle 1–6
A. Miranchuk
90′
🔁 G. Cittadini
↦ B. Djimsiti
92′
M. Pessina 1–7
J. Mæhle
Full-time 1–7

Line-ups

Udinese

5-4-1
20 D. Padelli G
87 S. De Maio D
17 B. Nuytinck D
50 Rodrigo Becão D
16 N. Molina D
2 N. Pérez D
13 D. Udogie M
23 I. Pussetto M
11 Walace M
10 Deulofeu M
9 Beto F
Bench (8)
93 B. Soppy
7 I. Success
66 E. Piana
73 L. Codutti
71 M. Damiani
70 R. Castagnaviz
72 N. Cocetta
63 J. Fedrizzi

Coach: G. Cioffi

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 J. Musso G
2 R. Tolói D
6 J. Palomino D
19 B. Djimsiti D
13 G. Pezzella M
3 J. Mæhle M
15 M. de Roon M
88 M. Pašalić F
18 R. Malinovskyi F
7 T. Koopmeiners M
9 L. Muriel F
Bench (9)
32 M. Pessina
33 H. Hateboer
59 A. Miranchuk
72 J. Iličić
46 G. Cittadini
47 T. Bertini
28 M. Demiral
31 F. Rossi
42 G. Scalvini

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,49
U
3,52
B ✓
2,09
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,66
U2,5
2,22
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Fabbri · 116 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.